IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/svk/wpaper/1092.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Decomposition of retail loan growth

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Cesnak

    (National Bank of Slovakia)

Abstract

Retail loan growth, especially housing loan growth, in Slovakia continues to be one of the highest within the euro area, even during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We decompose the annual growth rate of retail housing and consumer loans into the main factors enabling this high growth. These factors include growth of collateral value related to the strong price acceleration of residential real estate, income growth, the long-term decline of market interest rates and the extension of loan maturity. The latter is mainly used for refinancing loans and represents the strongest factor enabling increase of principal. Using microdata of individual retail loans granted in Slovakia, we show that the growth of housing loans would have been at least a third lower without these factors. The recent decrease of the consumer loan stock is explained by the strongly declining demand for consumer loans, triggered after the outbreak of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cesnak, 2023. "Decomposition of retail loan growth," Working and Discussion Papers OP 1/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    • Handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://nbs.sk/dokument/4631b39a-af76-4e81-8347-71e2cb1d970e/stiahnut/?force=false
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122, Czech National Bank.
    2. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    3. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    4. Andrej Cupak & Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso & Martin Suster, 2021. "Fates of indebted households during the Corona crisis: Survey results from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers OP 2/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Rossen Rozenov, 2019. "Excessive private sector leverage and its drivers: evidence from advanced economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(34), pages 3787-3803, July.
    6. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    8. Meng, Xianming & Hoang, Nam T. & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2013. "The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 80-90.
    9. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso & Roman Vasil, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Borrower-Based Measures," Working and Discussion Papers OP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    2. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202113 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Christian Castro & Ángel Estrada & Jorge Martínez, 2016. "The countercyclical capital buffer in spain: an analysis of key guiding indicators," Working Papers 1601, Banco de España.
    5. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    6. Gernát, Peter & Košťálová, Zuzana & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2020. "What drives U.S. financial sector volatility? A Bayesian model averaging perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Audit, Dooneshsingh & Alam, Nafis, 2022. "Why have credit variables taken centre stage in predicting systemic banking crises?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    8. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 309-339, August.
    10. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "Early Warning Indicator Model of Financial Developments Using an Ordered Logit," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 171-191, December.
    11. Tom Roberts, 2017. "A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes," Staff Working Papers 17-38, Bank of Canada.
    12. Savas Papadopoulos & Pantelis Stavroulias & Thomas Sager & Etti Baranoff, 2017. "A ternary-state early warning system for the European Union," Working Papers 222, Bank of Greece.
    13. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    15. Lang, Jan Hannes & Izzo, Cosimo & Fahr, Stephan & Ruzicka, Josef, 2019. "Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises," Occasional Paper Series 219, European Central Bank.
    16. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
    17. Jameel Ahmed, 2016. "Credit Conditions in Pakistan: Supply Constraints or Demand Deficiencies?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(2), pages 139-161, June.
    18. Lo Duca, Marco & Koban, Anne & Basten, Marisa & Bengtsson, Elias & Klaus, Benjamin & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lang, Jan Hannes & Detken, Carsten & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "A new database for financial crises in European countries," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 13, European Systemic Risk Board.
    19. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    20. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2011. "Monetary Policy in a Small Economy after Tsunami: A New Consensus on the Horizon?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(1), pages 5-33, January.
    21. Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:svk:wpaper:1092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbsgvsk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.