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L'indicateur avancé de l'OFCE

Author

Listed:
  • Françoise Charpin

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Hervé Péléraux

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

Cet article présente les principes de construction d’un indicateur avancé pour l’économie française, ainsi que son utilisation possible. L’objectif est de prévoir la croissance du PIB pour le trimestre en cours et le trimestre à venir. L’indicateur avancé incorpore des informations conjoncturelles à fréquence mensuelle et peut être ainsi calculé chaque mois. Deux blocs de variables entrent dans la composition de l’indicateur : un bloc réel contenant des variables coïncidentes et avancées d’un trimestre, et un bloc financier regroupant des variables avancées d’au moins trois trimestres. Les contributions de chaque bloc sont analysées pour apprécier le rôle des différents facteurs. Puis l’indicateur est mis en œuvre dans un exercice rétrospectif de prévision. Les résultats paraissent significatifs et confèrent à l’instrument un caractère opérationnel qui devra toutefois être éprouvé au fil des prévisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Françoise Charpin & Hervé Péléraux, 2000. "L'indicateur avancé de l'OFCE," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2466, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2466
    as

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    File URL: https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2466/resources/2000-01-charpin-l-indicateur-avance-de-l-ofce.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-37.
    2. Jacky Fayolle, 1993. "Décrire le cycle économique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(1), pages 161-197.
    3. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:54:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Catherine Doz & Fabrice Lenglart, 1999. "Analyse factorielle dynamique : test du nombre de facteurs, estimation et application à l'enquête de conjoncture dans l'industrie," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 54, pages 91-127.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indicateur; Économie française;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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