IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sol/wpaper/2013-240518.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Formation on Clandestine Markets: The Case of the Paris Gold Market during WWII

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Gallais-Hamonno
  • Thi-hong-van Hoang
  • Kim Oosterlinck

Abstract

Because of data scarcity, there are almost no quantitative analyses dealing with clandestine markets, despite their prime importance during wartime. This paper exploits a unique database of daily prices of gold coins traded in occupied Paris, in order to gain insights into price formation on such a market. First, using data from Switzerland, we show that arbitrage took place, despite the costs and risks involved, and led to a gradual (but incomplete) convergence of gold prices. Second, on basis of an event study, we provide evidence that the introduction of higher penalties for black market activities had no significant impact on prices. Finally, we analyze the law of one price on this clandestine market. Under this law, one gram of gold should have a similar value, whatever form it takes (independently of the coin considered). However, we do find large price variations for one gram of gold contained in different coins. We attribute this result to market participants’ taste for specific gold coins and we present our results in the framework developed by Sargeant and Velde (2002).

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Thi-hong-van Hoang & Kim Oosterlinck, 2016. "Price Formation on Clandestine Markets: The Case of the Paris Gold Market during WWII," Working Papers CEB 16-048, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/240518
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/240518/3/wp16048.pdf
    File Function: Œuvre complète ou partie de l'œuvre
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
    2. Kim Oosterlinck, 2017. "Art as a Wartime Investment: Conspicuous Consumption and Discretion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(607), pages 2665-2701, December.
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    4. Kim Oosterlinck, 2010. "French Stock Exchanges and Regulation during World War II," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/142702, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    6. Kim Oosterlinck & Filippo Occhino & Eugene N. White, 2006. "How occupied France financed its own exploitation during WW2," Working Papers CEB 06-012.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Thi Hong Van Hoang, 2011. "La vie et la mort du marché de l’or à la Bourse de Paris de 1948 à 2004," Working Papers 11-12, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    8. Oosterlinck, Kim, 2010. "French Stock exchanges and regulation during World War II1," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 211-237, October.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    10. Paul Sanders, 2008. "Economic draining -- German black market operations in France, 1940--1944," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1-2), pages 136-168, February.
    11. Gupta, Sanjeev, 1981. "A Note on the Efficiency of Black Markets in Foreign Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 705-710, June.
    12. Gallais-Hamonno, Georges & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2015. "Informational efficiency of the clandestine and official gold markets in Paris," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 28-30.
    13. Occhino, Filippo & Oosterlinck, Kim & White, Eugene N., 2008. "How Much Can a Victor Force the Vanquished to Pay? France under the Nazi Boot," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 1-45, March.
    14. Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
    15. Sargent, Thomas J & Velde, Francois R, 1999. "The Big Problem of Small Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 137-161, May.
    16. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    17. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    18. Vincent Bignon, 2009. "Cigarette Money and Black Market Prices around the 1948 German Miracle," Working Papers hal-04140893, HAL.
    19. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georges Gallais‐Hamonno & Thi‐Hong‐Van Hoang & Kim Oosterlinck, 2019. "Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(3), pages 1048-1072, August.
    2. Gallais-Hamonno, Georges & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2015. "Informational efficiency of the clandestine and official gold markets in Paris," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 28-30.
    3. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    4. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    6. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    7. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Zhu, Zhenzhen & El Khamlichi, Abdelbari & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Does the Shari’ah screening impact the gold-stock nexus? A sectorial analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 617-626.
    8. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj & Thi-Hong-Van Hoang, 2019. "Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: perspectives for portfolio diversification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1117-1144, March.
    9. Ke Chen & Meng Wang, 2017. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge and a Safe Haven for China’s Stock Market?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert & Pilbeam, Keith, 2015. "Causality and volatility patterns between gold prices and exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 292-300.
    11. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Yun Shi & Lin Yang & Mei Huang & Jun Steed Huang, 2021. "Multi-Factorized Semi-Covariance of Stock Markets and Gold Price," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-11, April.
    14. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "Are precious metals a hedge against exchange-rate movements? An empirical exploration using bayesian additive regression trees," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-38.
    15. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2015. "Is gold good for portfolio diversification? A stochastic dominance analysis of the Paris stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 98-108.
    17. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2018. "Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 196-212.
    18. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 105-116.
    19. Michael Buchner & Tobias A. Jopp, 2019. "Full steam ahead: Insider knowledge, stock trading and the nationalization of the railways in Prussia around 1879," Working Papers 0151, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    20. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Paris clandestine gold market; World War II; Swiss arbitrage; weekday effect; repressions; event studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/240518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cebulbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.