IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/soa/wpaper/201.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA

Author

Listed:
  • Duo Qin

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

  • Qingchao Wang

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

Abstract

This investigation seeks to construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) by the partial least squares (PLS) method with the aims (i) that the FCIs should outperform interest rate, which is conventionally used in small VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models to present the predictive macro-impacts of the financial markets, and (ii) that the FCIs are adequately invariant during regular updates to resemble non-model based aggregate indices. Both aims are shown to be attainable as long as the FCIs are tailor-made with carefully selected components and suitably targeted macro variables of forecasting interest. The positive outcome sheds light on why the widely used principal component analysis (PCA) approach is ill-suited to the tasks here whereas why the PLS route promises a fruitful way forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.soas.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-10/economics-wp201.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2011. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: An application to New Zealand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 496-511, April.
    2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    3. Diego Nicolas Moccero & Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Laurent Maurin, 2014. "Financial Conditions Index and Identification of Credit Supply Shocks for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 297-321, December.
    4. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    5. Blaise Gadanecz & Kaushik Jayaram, 2009. "Measures of financial stability - a review," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 365-380, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    7. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," BIS Working Papers 456, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Herman Wold, 1980. "Model Construction and Evaluation When Theoretical Knowledge Is Scarce," NBER Chapters, in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 47-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    11. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.
    12. Claudio Borio, 2013. "The Great Financial Crisis: Setting priorities for new statistics," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3-4), pages 306-317, July.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    15. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    17. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    18. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2014. "Financial conditions index and credit supply shocks for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1644, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Sophie van Huellen & Duo Qin & Shan Lu & Huiwen Wang & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Modelling opportunity cost effects in money demand due to openness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 697-744, January.
    3. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    5. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    6. Mirna Dumičić & Ivo Krznar, 2013. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity," Working Papers 37, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    7. Arrigoni, Simone & Bobasu, Alina & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2020. "The simpler the better: measuring financial conditions for monetary policy and financial stability," Working Paper Series 2451, European Central Bank.
    8. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    9. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: Insights from Machine Learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-095, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Hosszú, Zsuzsanna, 2018. "The impact of credit supply shocks and a new Financial Conditions Index based on a FAVAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 32-44.
    12. Liu, Dandan & Jansen, Dennis W., 2007. "Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 655-677.
    13. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam & Rajesh Kavediya & Jessica M. Anthony, 2017. "Estimating Financial Conditions Index for India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 61-89, April.
    15. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    16. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    17. Tóth, Peter, 2014. "Malý dynamický faktorový model na krátkodobé prognózovanie slovenského HDP [A Small Dynamic Factor Model for the Short-Term Forecasting of Slovak GDP]," MPRA Paper 63713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Stona, Filipe & Morais, Igor A.C. & Triches, Divanildo, 2018. "Economic dynamics during periods of financial stress: Evidences from Brazil," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-144.
    19. Cubadda, Gianluca & Guardabascio, Barbara, 2012. "A medium-N approach to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1099-1105.
    20. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 313-338, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partial Least Squares; financial conditions index; concatenation; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chandni Dwarkasing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desoauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.