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The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime

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  • Jennifer L. Doleac

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

Since 1988, every US state has established a database of criminal offenders’ DNA profiles. These databases have received widespread attention in the media and popular culture, but this paper provides the first rigorous analysis of their impact on crime. DNA databases are distinctive for two reasons: (1) They exhibit enormous returns to scale, and (2) they work mainly by increasing the probability that a criminal is punished rather than the severity of the punishment. I exploit the details and timing of state DNA database expansions in two ways, first to address the effects of DNA profiling on individual’s subsequent criminal behavior and then to address the impacts on crime rates and arrest probabilities. I first show that profiled violent offenders are more likely to return to prison than similar, unprofiled offenders. This suggests that the higher probability of getting caught outweighs the deterrent effect of DNA profiling. I then show that larger DNA databases reduce crime rates, especially in categories where forensic evidence is likely to be collected at the scene—e.g., murder, rape, assault, and vehicle theft. The probability of arresting a suspect in new crimes falls as databases grow, likely due to selection effects. Back-of-the-envelope estimates of the marginal cost of preventing each crime suggest that DNA databases are much more cost-effective than other common law enforcement tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer L. Doleac, 2012. "The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime," Discussion Papers 12-002, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sip:dpaper:12-002
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    10. Jennifer L. Doleac & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2015. "Under the Cover of Darkness: How Ambient Light Influences Criminal Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1093-1103, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. d'Este, Rocco & Yuchtman, Noam, 2023. "Correcting Racial Injustice: Forensic DNA Technology and the Exoneration of the Wrongfully Convicted," IZA Discussion Papers 16076, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Doleac, Jennifer, 2018. "Strategies to Productively Reincorporate the Formerly-Incarcerated into Communities: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 11646, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Haseeb, Muhammad & Vyborny, Kate, 2022. "Data, discretion and institutional capacity: Evidence from cash transfers in Pakistan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. POSTOLACHE, Victoria & BRANASCO, Natalia, 2022. "Modeling The Process Of Implementing Banking Innovations In A Digital Economy," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 10(1), pages 190-197, October.
    5. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Jennifer L. Doleac & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2012. "Under the Cover of Darkness: Using Daylight Saving Time to Measure How Ambient Light Influences Criminal Behavior," Discussion Papers 12-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Escobar, Maria A. & Tobón, Santiago & Vanegas-Arias, Martín, 2023. "Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Santiago Tobón Zapata & Maria Antonia Escobar Bernal & Martin Vanegas Arias, 2021. "Criminal capital persistence: Evidence from 90,000 inmates’ releases," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 19297, Universidad EAFIT.
    9. Lisa De Simone & Rebecca Lester & Kevin Markle, 2020. "Transparency and Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA)," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 105-153, March.
    10. d'Este, Rocco, 2022. "Scientific Advancements in Illegal Drugs Production and Institutional Responses: New Psychoactive Substances, Self-Harm, and Violence inside Prisons," IZA Discussion Papers 15248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Chan, Jason & Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Wagman, Liad, 2022. "State versus federal wiretap orders: A look at the data," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Federico Masera, 2022. "The economics of policing and crimeThe economics of policing and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 2, pages 12-29, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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