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Third parties and the non-monotonicity of the resource curse: Evidence from US military influence and oil value

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The relationship between resource value and conflict in a territory is affected by the interest of powerful third parties, which could deter predators. By employing widely-used measures of resource value and geologic predictors of oil presence, as well as a measures of third party presence, we examine this relationship, providing evidence of non-monotonicity in countries exposed to a powerful third party. We show that conflict probability is nonmonotonic in the value of oil in a country, in areas under US military influence. As we show, US influence in the data proxies for a higher probability of intervention in case of conflict, which may deter predator conflict in countries with large resource value.

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  • Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2024. "Third parties and the non-monotonicity of the resource curse: Evidence from US military influence and oil value," CSEF Working Papers 701, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:701
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; resource curse; third party; oil; intervention.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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