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Monetary Policy, Taxes, and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Michael R. Pakko
William T. Gavin
Finn E. Kydland

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Abstract

In this paper we model the contribution of monetary growth shocks to aggregate fluctuations. Our innovation is to combine persistent money growth shocks with taxes on nominal capital gains in a model in which the central bank operates policy using an interest rate rule. All three features are necessary for us to generate large effects of monetary shocks, but they are also realistic features of the U.S. economy. All three have been examined in isolation and, by themselves, do not contribute much to aggregate fluctuations. Capital gains taxes are important when there are persistent changes in the inflation rate. Money growth shocks do not cause persistence changes in inflation when the central bank uses a money growth rule. When the central bank operates policy using an interest rate rule persistent money growth shocks do lead to persistence in inflation, raising both the nominal value of capital and the effective marginal capital gains tax rate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 32.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:32

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Taxation; Business Cycle;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2002. "Taxation and the Taylor principle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    Other versions:
  4. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 2004. "Why are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Charles Ka-Yui Leung & Guang-Jia Zhang, 2000. "Inflation and Capital Gains Taxes in a Small Open Economy," Departmental Working Papers _119, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
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  7. Alan J. Auerbach, 1988. "Capital Gains Taxation in the United States: Realizations, Revenue, and Rhetoric," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 595-638. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. David Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1991. "Inflation, personal taxes, and real output: a dynamic analysis," Working Paper 9102, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  12. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, April.
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  15. Chang, Ly-June, 1995. "Business cycles with distorting taxes and disaggregated capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 985-1009. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Daniel Feenberg & James Poterba, 2003. "The Alternative Minimum Tax and Effective Marginal Tax Rates," NBER Working Papers 10072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Some Indirect Evidence on Effective Capital Gains Tax Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 127-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Kydland, Finn E, 1991. "Inflation, Personal Taxes, and Real Output: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 575-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Michael R. Pakko, 2002. "What Happens When the Technology Growth Trend Changes?: Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the 'New Economy'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 376-407, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Bennett T. McCallum & Marvin S. Goodfriend, 1987. "Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Balcer, Yves & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. " Effects of Capital Gains Taxation on Life-Cycle Investment and Portfolio Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 743-58, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anatoliy Belaygorod & Michael J. Dueker, 2005. "Discrete monetary policy changes and changing inflation targets in estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 719-34. [Downloadable!]
  2. Panagiotis Chronis & Aspassia Strantzalou, 2008. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction: What is the Role of the Transaction Cost of the Tax System in Stabilisation Policies?," Working Papers 71, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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