During recession, many macroeconomic variables display higher levels of volatility. We show how introducing an AR(1)-ARCH(1) driving pro- cess into the canonical Lucas consumption CAPM framework can account for the empirically observed greater volatilty of asset returns during re- cessions. In particular, agents' joint forecasting of levels and time-varying second moments transforms symmetric-volatility driving processes into asymmetric-volatility endogenous variables. Moreover, numerical exam- ples show that the model can indeed account for the degree of cyclical variation in both bond and equity returns in the U.S. data. Finally, we argue that the underlying mechanism is not speci.c to .nancial markets, and has the potential to explain cyclical variation in the volatilities of a wide variety of macroeconomic variables.
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
Length: Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:355
Contact details of provider: Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain Fax: +34 93 542 17 46 Email: Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)