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A Numerical Study On The Evolution Of Portfolio Rules

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Author Info
Guido Caldarelli (Universit la Sapienza)
M. Piccioni (INFM Sezione di Roma1 Universita' la Sapienza)
E. Sciubba (Tinbergen Institute Rotterdam)

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Abstract

In this paper we test computationally the performance of CAPM in an evolutionary setting. In particular we study the stability of wealth distribution in a financial market where some traders invest as prescribed by CAPM and others behave according to different portfolio rules. Our study is motivated by recent analytical results that show that, whenever a logarithmic utility maximiser enters the market, traders who either "believe" in CAPM and use it as a rule of thumb, or are endowed with genuine mean-variance preferences, vanish in the long run. Our analysis provides further insights and extends these results. We simulate a sequence of trades in a financial market and: first, we address the issue of how long is the long run in different parametric settings; second, we characterise a portfolio rule that, with some probability, dominates on logarithmic utility maximisers.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 334.

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Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:334

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Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
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  1. Goldman, M. Barry, 1974. "A negative report on the `near optimality' of the max-expected-log policy as applied to bounded utilities for long lived programs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 97-103, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hakansson, Nils H, 1971. "Multi-Period Mean-Variance Analysis: Toward A General Theory of Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 857-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sciubba, E., 1999. "The Evolution of Portfolio Rules and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9909, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, Paul A., 1974. "Fallacy of the log-normal approximation to optimal portfolio decision-making over many periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-94, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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