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Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses

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  • Alho, Juha

Abstract

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out to differ from the expected one, the decision makers in the macroeconomic models may change their behavior. To allow for this, numerical methods have been developed that allow us to approximate how future forecasts might look like, for any given observed path. Some technical details of how this can be done in the R environment are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Alho, Juha, 2014. "Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Expectations for Sustainability Analyses," ETLA Reports 24, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:report:24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
    2. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
    3. Juha Alho & Nico Keilman, 2010. "On future household structure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(1), pages 117-143, January.
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    1. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.

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    Keywords

    Demography; Forecasting; Overlapping generations;
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