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External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices

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  • Xiaoji Lin

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Fan Yang

    (University of Hong Kong)

  • Frederico Belo

    (University of Minnesota and NBER)

Abstract

The recent financial crisis in 2007-2008 suggests that financial shocks, the aggregate disturbances that originate directly in the financial sector, can play an important role as a source of business cycle fluctuations. In this paper, we explore the impact of aggregate shocks to the cost of equity issuance on asset prices in the cross section. We document that an empirical proxy of equity issuance cost shocks forecast future economic activity (output, consumption, and investment), and is a source of systematic risk: exposure to this shock helps price the cross section of stock returns including book-to-market, size, investment, and cash-flow portfolios. We propose a dynamic investment-based model that features an aggregate shock to the firms' cost of external equity issuance, and a collateral constraint. Our central finding is that time-varying external financing costs are crucial for the model to quantitatively capture the joint dynamics of firms' real quantities, financing flows, and asset prices. Furthermore, the model also replicates the failure of the unconditional CAPM in pricing the cross-sectional expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang & Frederico Belo, 2014. "External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:863
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    Cited by:

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    2. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Muir, Tyler, 2016. "Aggregate external financing and savings waves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 116-133.
    3. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    4. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Hang Bai & Kewei Hou & Howard Kung & Lu Zhang, 2015. "The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters," NBER Working Papers 21016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Aggregate External Financing and Savings Waves," NBER Working Papers 20442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Filippo Ippolito & Alessandro Villa, 2022. "Levered Returns and Capital Structure Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP 2022-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "Financing Lumpy Adjustment," Working Papers 2017_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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