IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed014/1129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Debt and government spending in ambiguous times

Author

Listed:
  • Anastasios Karantounias

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Axelle Ferriere

    (New York University)

Abstract

First, we endogenize government expenditures and study their optimal provision and mix with distortionary taxes in an economy without ambiguity. Second, we show that uncertainty over the distribution of shocks generates procyclical or countercyclical allocation of distortions, whereas without ambiguity distortions would be acyclical. Third, we provide a quantitative evaluation of the fiscal plan with ambiguity and analyze its short- and long-run properties. Preliminary results suggest that optimal policy would, (1) delay distortions for the future, or, (2) accelerate distortions and converge to a balanced budget in the long-run, depending on the size of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasios Karantounias & Axelle Ferriere, 2014. "Debt and government spending in ambiguous times," 2014 Meeting Papers 1129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2014/paper_1129.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    2. Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, January.
    3. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    5. , G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    6. Croce, Mariano M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Schmid, Lukas, 2012. "The market price of fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 401-416.
    7. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    8. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1972. "The structure of indirect taxation and economic efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 97-119, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Axelle Ferriere & Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 89-131, January.
    2. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. repec:fip:a00001:89442 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anastasios G Karantounias, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Recursive Preferences," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2283-2317.
    5. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
    8. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Federico Bennett & Giselle Montamat & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 141, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Chahrour, Ryan & Svec, Justin, 2014. "Optimal capital taxation and consumer uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 178-198.
    11. Lars Peter Hansen & Anastasios G. Karantounias & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009. "Managing expectations and fiscal policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    13. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    14. , G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    15. Staffa, Ruben Marek, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects from sovereign risk vs. Knightian uncertainty," IWH Discussion Papers 27/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Szőke, Bálint & Han, Lloyd S. & Sargent, Thomas J., 2020. "Twisted probabilities, uncertainty, and prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 151-174.
    17. Lars P. Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2016. "Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Eduardo Ariel Corso, 2014. "Ambiguity, ambiguity aversion and stores of value: The case of Argentina," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    19. Hengjie Ai & Ravi Bansal, 2016. "Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 22527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2022. "Prices and Taxes in a Ramsey Climate Policy Model under Heterogeneous Beliefs and Ambiguity," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-56, October.
    21. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.