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Learning, Expectations and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Stefano Eusepi () (Domestic Research Fedral Reserve Bank of New York)
Stefania D'Amico
Abstract

Standard RBC models predict forecastable movements in output, consumption and hours that differ from those obtained from a VAR estimated on US data. The paper investigates whether introducing bounded rationality and learning generates business cycles properties which are empirically plausible. In particular we focus on, (i) the forecastable components of output, consumption and hours and (ii) the expected co-movement of output, consumption and hours. We set up a three-sector RBC model with structural change and bounded rationality, where the economic agents gradually learn about changes in the growth rate of productivity. We then estimate the model using indirect inference methods. We evaluate the empirical fit by comparing the model with learning with a version that imposes rational expectations. Given that the asymptotic behavior of the agents’ beliefs depends only on the deep parameters of the model, our econometric approach does not require the estimation of extra free parameters, compared with the RBC model under rational expectations.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 771.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:771

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Anne Stubing CV Starr Center for Applied Economics 269 Mercer Street, Room 303 New York University New York, NY 10003
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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Related research
Keywords: business cycles learning

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-20.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.