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Short-Term Capital Flows, The Real Economy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries

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  • Dr E V K FitzGerald

Abstract

The volatility of short-term capital flows (or 'capital surges') is now recognized as a major problem for macroeconomic management in developing countries; but the consequences for the 'real' economy - that is, the behaviour of government, firms and households which subsequently translates into investment, growth, employment and welfare - is less well understood. Short-term capital flow instability arises from the desire of investors to hold liquid assets in the face of uncertainty; affecting the real economy both through variations in both prices such as the interest rate and the exchange rate, and quantities such as levels of bank credit and government bond sales. In this chapter, government expenditure is shown to respond in an asymmetric manner to sudden changes in investor perceptions of fiscal solvency associated with portfolio capital surges. The impact of short flows on output and investment by firms through the availability of bank credit is also found to be large and asymmetric. The macroeconomic effect of capital surges on employment levels and the real wage rate is shown to arise from their influence on real exchange rates and domestic demand levels, although whether employment or wages adjust depends the monetary stabilization policy adopted. The chapter concludes with some implications of the analysis for longer-term growth and policy design.

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  • Dr E V K FitzGerald, "undated". "Short-Term Capital Flows, The Real Economy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps08, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps08
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    File URL: http://workingpapers.qeh.ox.ac.uk/RePEc/qeh/qehwps/qehwps08.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," QEH Working Papers qehwps52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    2. J Benson Durham, "undated". "A Survey of the Econometric Literature on the Real Effects of International Capital Flows in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps50, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    3. F. Kemal Kýzýlca, 2008. "Capital Flows and the Non-Tradables in the Turkish Economy after Capital Account Liberalization," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Emerging Economic Issues in a Globalizing World, pages 108-118, Izmir University of Economics.
    4. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "Do Capital Flows Improve Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets? : The Turkish Experience," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 20-32, July.
    5. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    6. Valpy Fitzgerald, 2006. "International Risk Tolerance, Capital Market Failure and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. World Bank, 2008. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum : Volume 2. Sustaining High Growth, Selected Issues," World Bank Publications - Reports 8017, The World Bank Group.
    8. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    9. Griffith-Jones, Stephany, 2000. "International capital flows to Latin America," Series Históricas 7536, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Bilge Bakin & Gozde Gurgun, 2014. "Portfolio Investments and Asset Prices Relationship in Turkey," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0201138, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

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