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Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff

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David Backus

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Abstract

Various popular exchange rate models (a standard monetary model, a portfolio balance model, and sticky-price models) are estimated and evaluated using U.S.-Canadian data for the 1970s. Nonnested hypothesis tests demonstrate that none are correctly specified. The data suggest: 1) the exchange rate persistence observed is not fully explained by any of the models; 2) the small Durbin-Watson statistics indicate longer lags are required; 3) the current account is a useful explanatory variable; 4) the portfolio balance model fits the data well, but has potentially serious problems measuring the stock of foreign assets.

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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 463.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 1982
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Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:463

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  1. Michael D. Goldberg & Roman Frydman, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Warren E. Weber, 1986. "Do sterilized interventions affect exchange rates?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Are Different-Currency Assets Imperfect Substitutes?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Sarich, 2006. "What do we know about the real exchange rate? A classical cost of production story," Review of Political Economy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 469-496, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Goldberg, M.D. & Frydman, R., 1995. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market," Working Papers 95-30, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Walter Wasserfallen & Hans Kyburz, 1985. "The behavior of flexible exchange rates in the short run — A systematic investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 646-660, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. B. Moazzami & F. J. Anderson, 2003. "Long-term trend and short-run dynamics of the Canadian dollar: an error correction modelling approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1527-1530, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Panayiotis F. Diamandis & Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Georgios P. Kouretas, 1996. "Cointegration Tests Of The Monetary Exchange Rate Model: The Canadian - U.S. Dollar, 1970--1994," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 83-97, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Pratomo, Wahyu Ario, 2005. "Exchange Rate of Indonesia: Does Rupiah Overshoot?," MPRA Paper 7381, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 33, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jul 1997. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Murray, J. & Van Norden, S. & Vigfusson, R., 1996. "Excess Volatility and Speculative Bubbles in the Canadian Dollar: Real of Imagined?," Technical Reports 76, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Frömmel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Do Fundamentals Matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A Regime Switching Approach," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-289, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Gregory P. Hopper, 1997. "What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 17-29. [Downloadable!]
  17. Keith Pilbeam, 2001. "Economic Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Movements," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 55-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Alan G. Isaac & Suresh de Mel, 1999. "The Real Interest Differential Model after Twenty Years," International Finance 9907002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  19. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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