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Debunking the Myth that a Legal Trade will Solve the Rhino Horn Crisis: A System Dynamics Model for Market Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas J. Crookes

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • James N. Blignaut

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

There is considerable debate in the literature over whether or not to legalise the trade in rhino horns. Here a system dynamics model is developed that considers five components: rhino abundance, rhino demand, a price model, an income model and a supply model. The results indicate that income elasticities are much greater than previously observed, while demand is relatively insensitive to price. At the same time, legalising the trade without income modification policies did not prevent extinction. The theory of s-curve growth may provide some indications of future growth patterns of Asian economies. Results suggest that, even though the demand curve for rhino horn may be downward sloping as conventional theory predicts, non-conventional demand management strategies may be more effective than price orientated demand curve strategies such as trade legalisation in curbing supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas J. Crookes & James N. Blignaut, 2015. "Debunking the Myth that a Legal Trade will Solve the Rhino Horn Crisis: A System Dynamics Model for Market Demand," Working Papers 201533, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Allen, Douglas W, 2002. "The Rhino's Horn: Incomplete Property Rights and the Optimal Value of an Asset," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 339-358, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian A. Lopes, 2019. "Transnational links in rhino poaching and the black‐market price of rhino horns," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(1), pages 95-115, January.
    2. Alan Collins & Caroline Cox & Juniours Marire, 2020. "On the judicial annulment of the ‘domestic’ trade moratorium in South African rhinoceros horn: a law and economics perspective," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 361-372, June.
    3. Timothy C Haas & Sam M Ferreira, 2016. "Combating Rhino Horn Trafficking: The Need to Disrupt Criminal Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-26, November.
    4. Siqing Shan & Xijie Ju & Yigang Wei & Xin Wen, 2022. "Concerned or Apathetic? Using Social Media Platform (Twitter) to Gauge the Public Awareness about Wildlife Conservation: A Case Study of the Illegal Rhino Trade," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Dang Vu, Hoai Nam & Nielsen, Martin Reinhardt & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2022. "Conserving rhinos by legal trade: Insights from a choice experiment with rhino horn consumers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Alan Collins & Caroline Cox & Juniours Marire, 0. "On the judicial annulment of the ‘domestic’ trade moratorium in South African rhinoceros horn: a law and economics perspective," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-12.
    7. Harvey, Ross & Alden, Chris & Wu, Yu-Shan, 2017. "Speculating a Fire Sale: Options for Chinese Authorities in Implementing a Domestic Ivory Trade Ban," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 22-31.
    8. Rubino, Elena C. & Pienaar, Elizabeth F. & Soto, José R., 2018. "Structuring Legal Trade in Rhino Horn to Incentivize the Participation of South African Private Landowners," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 306-316.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy

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