IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/prc/dpaper/ks--2020-dp05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Karanfil
  • Axel Pierru

    (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)

Abstract

When appraising investment projects from a public perspective, a barrel of oil displaced from or added to domestic consumption has to be valued at its opportunity cost. This paper develops a partial-equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil-exporting country. The framework takes into account that (i) the usual ‘small economy’ assumption does not necessarily hold, (ii) the domestic oil price can be set either at a fixed level or as a function of the international price, and (iii) oil production, level of exports, or domestic consumption can be constrained. We derive the opportunity cost for each case considered and a formula quantifying the net welfare gains from reforming the domestic oil price

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Karanfil & Axel Pierru, 2020. "The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia," Discussion Papers ks--2020-dp05, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp05
    DOI: 10.30573/KS--2020-DP05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/the-opportunity-cost-of-domestic-oil-consumption-for-an-oil-exporter-illustration-for-saudi-arabia/
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30573/KS--2020-DP05?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2013. "Changes in the Operational Efficiency of National Oil Companies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Papps, Ivy, 1993. "Shadow Pricing with Price Controls," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(2), pages 199-209, May.
    3. Aune, Finn Roar & Grimsrud, Kristine & Lindholt, Lars & Rosendahl, Knut Einar & Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2017. "Oil consumption subsidy removal in OPEC and other Non-OECD countries: Oil market impacts and welfare effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 395-409.
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(5-6), pages 421-433, June.
    5. Coggins, Jay S. & Swinton, John R., 1996. "The Price of Pollution: A Dual Approach to Valuing SO2Allowances," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 58-72, January.
    6. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 317-353, June.
    7. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Sun, Chuanwang, 2015. "Energy savings potential in China's industrial sector: From the perspectives of factor price distortion and allocative inefficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-126.
    8. Dreze, Jean & Stern, Nicholas, 1990. "Policy reform, shadow prices, and market prices," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-45, June.
    9. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(6), pages 1563-1618.
    10. Kirk Hamilton & Giovanni Ruta, 2017. "Accounting Price of an Exhaustible Resource: Response and Extensions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(3), pages 527-536, November.
    11. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    12. Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2019. "Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-20.
    13. Hartwick, John M., 1990. "Natural resources, national accounting and economic depreciation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 291-304, December.
    14. Trung, Le Dang & Oostendorp, Remco H., 2017. "Regional Labor Market Integration, Shadow Wages and Poverty in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 34-56.
    15. Murtin, Fabrice & Boarini, Romina & Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2017. "Beyond GDP: Is there a law of one shadow price?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 390-411.
    16. Kakeu, Johnson & Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2017. "Habit formation and exhaustible resource risk-pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    17. François Gardes, 2019. "The Estimation of Price Elasticities and the Value of Time in a Domestic Production Framework: an Application using French Micro-Data," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03281830, HAL.
    18. Ekaterina Nikitina, 2019. "Opportunity Cost of Environmental Conservation in the Presence of Externalities: Application to the Farmed and Wild Salmon Trade-Off in Norway," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 679-696, June.
    19. Nathan S. Balke, Michael Plante, and Mine Yücel, 2015. "Fuel Subsidies, the Oil Market and the World Economy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    20. Kwon, Oh Sang & Yun, Won-Cheol & Hwan An, Dong, 2005. "Market value for thermal energy of cogeneration:: using shadow price estimation applied to cogeneration systems in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(14), pages 1789-1795, September.
    21. Niek Stadhouders & Xander Koolman & Christel van Dijk & Patrick Jeurissen & Eddy Adang, 2019. "The marginal benefits of healthcare spending in the Netherlands: Estimating cost‐effectiveness thresholds using a translog production function," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1331-1344, November.
    22. Surender Kumar & Rakesh Kumar Jain, 2021. "Cost of CO2 emission mitigation and its decomposition: evidence from coal-fired thermal power sector in India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 693-717, August.
    23. Silva, Felipe de Figueiredo & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Perrin, Richard K., 2019. "The Cost of Forest Preservation in the Brazilian Amazon: The "Arc of Deforestation"," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(3), September.
    24. Sah, Raaj Kumar & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1985. "The social cost of labor and project evaluation: A general approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 135-163, November.
    25. Thomas Gochenour, D., 1992. "The coming capacity shortfall : The constraints on OPEC's investment in spare capacity expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 973-982, October.
    26. Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Smeers, Yves, 2019. "Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 666-676.
    27. Fare, Rolf, et al, 1993. "Derivation of Shadow Prices for Undesirable Outputs: A Distance Function Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 374-380, May.
    28. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    29. Atalla, Tarek N. & Gasim, Anwar A. & Hunt, Lester C., 2018. "Gasoline demand, pricing policy, and social welfare in Saudi Arabia: A quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 123-133.
    30. Lee, Sang-choon & Oh, Dong-hyun & Lee, Jeong-dong, 2014. "A new approach to measuring shadow price: Reconciling engineering and economic perspectives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 66-77.
    31. Sunding, David L. & Swoboda, Aaron M., 2010. "Hedonic analysis with locally weighted regression: An application to the shadow cost of housing regulation in Southern California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 550-573, November.
    32. Camelo, Sergio & Papavasiliou, Anthony & de Castro, Luciano & Riascos, Álvaro & Oren, Shmuel, 2018. "A structural model to evaluate the transition from self-commitment to centralized unit commitment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 560-572.
    33. John Posnett & Stephen Jan, 1996. "Indirect cost in economic evaluation: The opportunity cost of unpaid inputs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 13-23, January.
    34. Jones, Chris, 2005. "Applied Welfare Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199281978.
    35. Mekaroonreung, Maethee & Johnson, Andrew L., 2012. "Estimating the shadow prices of SO2 and NOx for U.S. coal power plants: A convex nonparametric least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 723-732.
    36. Katrina Mullan & Erin Sills & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak & Jill Caviglia-Harris, 2018. "Converting Forests to Farms: The Economic Benefits of Clearing Forests in Agricultural Settlements in the Amazon," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 427-455, October.
    37. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    38. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    39. Lee, Myunghun & Jin, Yingmei, 2012. "The substitutability of nuclear capital for thermal capital and the shadow price in the Korean electric power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 834-841.
    40. David Coady & Ian W H Parry & Baoping Shang, 2018. "Energy Price Reform: Lessons for Policymakers," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    41. Jorge Blazquez, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano, and Axel Pierru, 2020. "The Value of Saving Oil in Saudi Arabia," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 207-222.
    42. Wei, Chu & Löschel, Andreas & Liu, Bing, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the CO2 shadow price in Chinese thermal power enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 22-31.
    43. François Gardes, 2019. "The Estimation of Price Elasticities and the Value of Time in a Domestic Production Framework: an Application using French Micro-Data," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 135, pages 89-120.
    44. David I. Green, 1894. "Pain-Cost and Opportunity-Cost," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 8(2), pages 218-229.
    45. Liao, Chao-ning & Önal, Hayri & Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2009. "Average shadow price and equilibrium price: A case study of tradable pollution permit markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1207-1213, August.
    46. Sedoff, Andrei & Schott, Stephan & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Sustainable power and scenic beauty: The Niagara River Water Diversion Treaty and its relevance today," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 526-536.
    47. Wu, Yinyin & Yu, Jie & Song, Malin & Chen, Jiandong & Hou, Wenxuan, 2021. "Shadow prices of industrial air pollutant emissions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 726-736.
    48. Yang, Hongqiang & Li, Xi, 2018. "Potential variation in opportunity cost estimates for REDD+ and its causes," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 138-146.
    49. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    50. Axel Pierru, James L. Smith, and Tamim Zamrik, 2018. "OPECs Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    51. Mr. David Coady & Ian W.H. Parry & Nghia-Piotr Le & Baoping Shang, 2019. "Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2019/089, International Monetary Fund.
    52. Łaszkiewicz, Edyta & Czembrowski, Piotr & Kronenberg, Jakub, 2019. "Can proximity to urban green spaces be considered a luxury? Classifying a non-tradable good with the use of hedonic pricing method," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 237-247.
    53. Yamaguchi, Rintaro & Managi, Shunsuke, 2019. "Backward- and Forward-looking Shadow Prices in Inclusive Wealth Accounting: An Example of Renewable Energy Capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 337-349.
    54. François Gardes, 2019. "The Estimation of Price Elasticities and the Value of Time in a Domestic Production Framework: an Application using French Micro-Data," Post-Print hal-03281830, HAL.
    55. Stacy Eller & Peter Hartley & Kenneth Medlock, 2011. "Empirical evidence on the operational efficiency of National Oil Companies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 623-643, May.
    56. Dinwiddy, Caroline & Teal, Francis, 1994. "The shadow wage rate : Theory and application," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 309-317, February.
    57. Martini, Chiara & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2014. "Is the environment a luxury? An empirical investigation using revealed preferences and household production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 147-167.
    58. Hartley, Peter & Medlock III, Kenneth B., 2008. "A model of the operation and development of a National Oil Company," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2459-2485, September.
    59. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Zhang, Ning, 2016. "Environmental technical efficiency, technology gap and shadow price of coal-fuelled power plants in China: A parametric meta-frontier analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 14-32.
    60. François Gardes, 2019. "The Estimation of Price Elasticities and the Value of Time in a Domestic Production Framework: an Application using French Micro-Data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03281830, HAL.
    61. Pearce, David & Markandya, Anil, 1987. "Marginal Opportunity Cost as a Planning Concept in Natural Resource Management," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 21(3), pages 18-32, November.
    62. Frederic Ang & Simon M. Mortimer & Francisco J. Areal & Richard Tiffin, 2018. "On the Opportunity Cost of Crop Diversification," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 794-814, September.
    63. Geoffrey Heal, 2012. "Reflections--Defining and Measuring Sustainability," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 6(1), pages 147-163.
    64. Loomis, John & Haefele, Michelle, 2017. "Quantifying Market and Non-market Benefits and Costs of Hydraulic Fracturing in the United States: A Summary of the Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 160-167.
    65. Khademvatani, Asgar & Gordon, Daniel V., 2013. "A marginal measure of energy efficiency: The shadow value," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 153-159.
    66. Axel Pierru and Walid Matar, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    67. Tamaki, Tetsuya & Shin, Kong Joo & Nakamura, Hiroki & Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Shadow prices and production inefficiency of mineral resources," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 111-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rioux, Bertrand & Shabaneh, Rami & Griffiths, Steven, 2021. "An economic analysis of gas pipeline trade cooperation in the GCC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Karanfil, Fatih & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2023. "The energy transition and export diversification in oil-dependent countries: The role of structural factors," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PB).
    3. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, 2022. "Nationalization of the private sector labor force, quotas, matching and public jobs, an illustration with Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 98-117.
    4. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Almutairi, Hossa & Aljarboua, Abdullah & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar & Murphy, Frederic, 2023. "Hard-linking a top-down economic model with a bottom-up energy system for an oil-exporting country with price controls," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. François Gardes, 2021. "A Method to infer time preference from the value of time," Post-Print halshs-03289200, HAL.
    2. François Gardes, 2021. "An Austrian Trade Cycle model with an Endogenous Value of Time," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21025, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Aldubyan, Mohammad & Gasim, Anwar, 2021. "Energy price reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the economic and environmental impacts and understanding the demand response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    4. François Gardes, 2021. "On the value of time and human life," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03325332, HAL.
    5. Wang, Zhaohua & Song, Yanwu & Shen, Zhiyang, 2022. "Global sustainability of carbon shadow pricing: The distance between observed and optimal abatement costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. François Gardes, 2021. "Biases on variances estimated on large data-sets," Post-Print halshs-03325118, HAL.
    7. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    8. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Tamaki, Tetsuya & Shin, Kong Joo & Nakamura, Hiroki & Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Shadow prices and production inefficiency of mineral resources," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 111-121.
    10. François Gardes, 2021. "Biases on variances estimated on large data-sets," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03325118, HAL.
    11. François Gardes, 2021. "On the value of time and human life," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21023, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. Perrings, Charles, 2014. "Environment and development economics 20 years on," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 333-366, June.
    13. François Gardes, 2021. "Endogenous Prices in a Riemannian Geometry Framework," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21026, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    14. Gasim, Anwar A. & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & De Lipsis, Vincenzo, 2023. "Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. François Gardes, 2021. "Biases on variances estimated on large data-sets," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 21022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    16. François Gardes, 2021. "A Method to infer time preference from the value of time," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03289200, HAL.
    17. François Gardes, 2021. "On the value of time and human life," Post-Print halshs-03325332, HAL.
    18. Mardones, Cristian & del Rio, Ricardo, 2019. "Correction of Chilean GDP for natural capital depreciation and environmental degradation caused by copper mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 143-152.
    19. Zhang, Qizheng & Qian, Zesen & Wang, Shuo & Yuan, Lingran & Gong, Binlei, 2022. "Productivity drain or productivity gain? The effect of new technology adoption in the oilfield market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    20. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dometic Pricing; Oil; Opportunity Cost; Shadow Price; Saudi Arabia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Gaffney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kapsasa.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.