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Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis

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Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how the crisis in Asia spread during the second half of 1997. We cast our net wide and investigate several possible trade and financial linkages among the Asian economies. We construct a series of “contagion vulnerability indices,” which capture the various manifestations of exposure through trade and finance to the initial crisis country and contrast the predictions of this index to actual outcomes during the Asian crisis. We pay attention to the reversal in bank lending of Japanese and European banks, which were lending heavily to emerging Asia on the eve of the crisis. Daily interest rate and exchange rate data for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand are used to assess whether the patterns of causality and interdependence changed as the crisis spread, as well as to answer question of whether interdependence among the Asian economies has changed as the result of the crisis.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7580.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7580

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  3. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1994. "Contagious Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1055, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1997. "Rational herd behavior and the globalization of securities markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 120, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2002. "Financial markets in time of stress," MPRA Paper 13869, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Nicola Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 359-367. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Giorgio Fazio & Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stavros Panageas, 2009. "Bailouts, the Incentive to Manage Risk, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yong Sarah Zhou, 2008. "Capital Flows and Economic Fluctuations: The Role of Commercials Banks in Transmitting Shocks," IMF Working Papers 08/12, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 014, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "The Performance of Domestic and Foreign Banks: The Case of Korea and the Asian Financial Crisis," Working papers 2002-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Foreign and Domestic Bank Performances: An Ideal Decomposition of Industry Dynamics," Working papers 2004-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Yongil Jeon & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The effect of the Asian financial crisis on the performance of Korean nationwide banks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 351-360, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Makin, Tony & Robson, Alexander, 2006. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Controls," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1-2), pages 13-24, March/Sep. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction," CEPR Discussion Papers 3870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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