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Business Cycle Synchronization in EU Economies after the Recession of the Years 2007-2009

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  • Osińska, Magdalena
  • Kufel, Tadeusz
  • Błażejowski, Marcin
  • Kufel, Paweł

Abstract

The aim of the study is to evaluate business cycle synchronization in the EU economies including determination of the impact of the global financial and economic recession of the years 2007-2009. In general, the economic recession can be understood as one of the phase of the global business cycle because all countries had suffered somehow from this enormous collapse. It is commonly assumed that GDP series in constant prices measure both: business activity and business cycle. In the presented research seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series from the years 1995-2012 were analyzed. We proposed to apply the tools of cross-spectral analysis such as coherence, phase and amplitude of the specified frequencies taking into account the time window of 48 quarters. Such a procedure allows indicating a rapid change in business cycle synchronization conditionally on the period of the analysis that includes the years 2007-2009. The empirical findings show that the assumption of business cycle synchronization within the EU was confirmed for the strongest economies of the European Union like Germany, Great Britain or France. Moreover, Poland and Spain can also be included to the club of synchronized economies. Other EU economies, like Hungarian, Italian and Portugal were less synchronized with the EU business cycle, although in the period of crisis they were closer to the whole economic area. For the non-EU countries, significantly weaker synchronization with the EU was observed. The hypothesis that the financial crisis caused similarities in the business cycle paths of the EU countries and the USA was confirmed, while for Japan and Switzerland it could not be confirmed in the light of the obtained results.

Suggested Citation

  • Osińska, Magdalena & Kufel, Tadeusz & Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł, 2015. "Business Cycle Synchronization in EU Economies after the Recession of the Years 2007-2009," MPRA Paper 72888, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72888
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    3. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    2. Magdalena Osinska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel, 2016. "Modelling and Forecasting Business Cycle in CEE Countries using a Threshold Approach," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 145-164.
    3. Tadeusz Kufel, 2021. "Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 875-890.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; synchronization; cross-spectrum; moving window; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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