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Population with immigration: Turkey and the EU. Does a young population remedy to the aged?

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  • Özdemir, Durmuş
  • Rosch, Angi

Abstract

Annual population growth rate in Turkey is as high as 1.1 per cent, while many EU countries have shrinking, and hence ageing, populations. In this paper we consider an age-structured population that consists of female natives and Turkish immigrants into the EU. Immigrants’ fertility and mortality schedule may differ from that of EU natives, their children may adopt it. We apply a discrete-time Leslie-type model which allows for immigration and the study of its long-run effects. We examine the contribution of EU natives and Turkish immigrants to the EU population in terms of age-specific reproductive values which measure the value of one female of a given age as a seed for future population growth. Genealogies are derived in terms of the realisations of a corresponding Markov chain running backward in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Özdemir, Durmuş & Rosch, Angi, 2005. "Population with immigration: Turkey and the EU. Does a young population remedy to the aged?," MPRA Paper 55848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 May 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55848
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lloyd Demetrius, 1979. "Relations between demographic parameters," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(2), pages 329-338, May.
    2. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey and the EU; ageing populations; immigration; stochastic demography; stable populations; discrete-time Leslie-type model; age-specific reproductive values; Markov chain; genealogy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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