IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/46229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Dale, Charles

Abstract

The nature of short- and long-term business cycles is a topic of considerable interest to futurists, since the state of the economy affects the possibilities for dealing with so many other areas of interest, from pollution control to child care. In this article, which is based on a talk that the author gave at the World Future Society’s Sixth General Assembly in July 1989, he discusses the most recent ideas in both long- and short-term business cycle theory, and describes some of their interrelationships. One of the key connections between short- and long-term cycles is through industry, and the paper begins with a discussion of an industrial quality control issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Dale, Charles, 1990. "From Kondratieff to Chaos: Some Perspectives on Long-Term and Short-Term Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 46229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46229/1/MPRA_paper_46229.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sayers, C.L., 1988. "Work Stoppages: Exploring The Nonlinear Dynamics," Papers 27, Houston - Department of Economics.
    2. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
    3. Brock, William A. & Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Spectral Analysis Cannot Tell A Macro-Econometrician Whether His Time Series Came From A Stochastic Economy Or A Deterministic Economy," SSRI Workshop Series 292596, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute.
    4. Lorenz, Hans-Walter, 1987. "Strange attractors in a multisector business cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 397-411, September.
    5. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    6. Dale, Charles, 1984. "A Search for Business Cycles with Spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 49508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    2. Costas Siriopoulos & Alexandros Leontitsis, 2002. "Nonlinear Noise Estimation in International Capital Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 43-63, March.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    4. M. Matilla-Garcia & P. Sanz & F. J. Vazquez, 2004. "Dimension estimation with the BDS-G statistic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1219-1223.
    5. Ignacio Olmeda & Joaquin Pérez, 1995. "Non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 217-248, May.
    6. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    7. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    8. Eduardo Pozo & Lucia Amboj, 2001. "Noise reduction methods and the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm. A simulation study," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 71-75.
    9. Halkos, George & Tsilika, Kyriaki, 2014. "Nonlinear time series analysis of annual temperatures concerning the global Earth climate," MPRA Paper 59140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Matilla-García, Mariano & Marín, Manuel Ruiz, 2010. "A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 600-614, December.
    12. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
    13. Gilmore, Claire G., 2001. "An examination of nonlinear dependence in exchange rates, using recent methods from chaos theory," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-151.
    14. Samir Saadi & Devinder Gandhi & Khaled Elmawazini, 2006. "On the validity of conventional statistical tests given evidence of non-synchronous trading and non-linear dynamics in returns generating process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 301-305.
    15. Madhavan, Vinodh, 2013. "Nonlinearity in investment grade Credit Default Swap (CDS) Indices of US and Europe: Evidence from BDS and close-returns tests," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 266-279.
    16. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun.
    17. Isabelle Girerd-Potin & Ollivier Taramasco, 1994. "Les rentabilités à la bourse de Paris sont-elles chaotiques ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(2), pages 215-238.
    18. Szpiro, George G., 1997. "Noise in unspecified, non-linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 229-255, June.
    19. David Chappell & Robert Eldridge, 1997. "Non-linear characteristics of the sterling/European Currency Unit exchange rate: 1984-1992," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 159-182.
    20. Luis A. Aguirre & Antonio Aguirre, 1997. "A tutorial introduction to nonlinear dynamics in economics," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 7(2), pages 9-47.
    21. Aydin Cecen, A. & Erkal, Cahit, 1996. "Distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic behavior in foreign exchange rate returns: Further evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 323-329, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kondratieff; Long waves: Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.