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An Optimal Design of Early Warning Systems: A Bayesian Quickest Change Detection Approach

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  • Li, Haixi

Abstract

This paper proposed a new optimal design of Early Warning Systems (EWS) to detect early warning signals of an impending financial crisis. The problem of EWS was formulated from a policy maker's perspective. Hence the probability threshold was obtained by minimizing the policy maker's welfare loss. This paper employed the state-of-the-art Bayesian Quickest Change Detection (BQCD) as the methodology to detect the early warning signals as soon as possible. We showed that the BQCD method outperformed the Logit model used in traditional EWS models based on results of simulation exercise and the out-of-sample predictions of the 1997 Asian financial crises. We found that not only early warning signals were stronger prior to a crisis, but also stronger warning signals appeared more frequently. The BQCD method was sensitive to the increase in frequency, hence out-performed the traditional Logit-EWS model.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Haixi, 2012. "An Optimal Design of Early Warning Systems: A Bayesian Quickest Change Detection Approach," MPRA Paper 37302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
    5. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-121.
    6. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to Evaluate an Early-Warning System: Toward a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(1), pages 75-113, April.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wiens, Marcus & Mahdavian, Farnaz & Platt, Stephen & Schultmann, Frank, 2020. "Optimal evacuation-decisions facing the trade-off between early-warning precision, evacuation-cost and trust - the Warning Compliance Model (WCM)," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 47, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early warning system; financial crises; monetary policy; Bayesian quickest change detection; optimal stopping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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