IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/36894.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Kucukkale, Yakup
  • Yamak, Rahmi

Abstract

Recent developments in time series analysis have encouraged the economists to re-examine their findings about the Wagner’s Law. That is why, the aggregation in public expenditures may lead some contradictions, disaggregated analyses should perform to have more consistent results. In this paper, the cointegration and causal relationships have re-examined between public expenditure and economic growth by using disaggregated annual data over the period of 1968-2004 for Turkish economy. Obtained results show that there is no common trend between these variables in the long-run. In the short-run, however, there is a strong and bidirectional causal relationship between public investment expenditures and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kucukkale, Yakup & Yamak, Rahmi, 2012. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s law with disaggregated data: evidence from Turkey, 1968-2004," MPRA Paper 36894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36894/1/MPRA_paper_36894.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-888, July.
    6. A. A. Asseery & D. Law & N. Perdikis, 1999. "Wagner's Law and public expenditure in Iraq: a test using disaggregated data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-44.
    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    9. Oxley, Les, 1994. "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A Test for Britain 1870-1913," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(3), pages 286-298, August.
    10. Bruce Morley & Nicholas Perdikis, 2000. "Trade liberalisation, government expenditure and economic growth in Egypt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 38-54.
    11. Peter M. Jackson & Meryem Duygun Fethi & Sami Fethi, "undated". "Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: A test for Northern Cyprus, 1977-1996," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 99/2, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    12. Halicioglu Ferda, 2003. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 31-42, August.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
    15. Tobin, Damian, 2005. "Economic Liberalization, the Changing Role of the State and "Wagner's Law": China's Development Experience since 1978," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 729-743, May.
    16. Michael Chletsos & Christos Kollias, 1997. "Testing Wagner's law using disaggregated public expenditure data in the case of Greece: 1958-93," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 371-377.
    17. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2007. "The Relation between Government Expenditures and Economic Growth in Thailand," MPRA Paper 46070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
    2. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2012. "Wagner versus Keynes: Public spending and national income in Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 890-905.
    3. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    5. Antoniou Antonis & Katrakilidis Constantinos & Tsaliki Persefoni, 2013. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 457-472, June.
    6. Thabane, Kanono & Lebina, Sello, 2016. "Economic Growth and Government Spending Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Lesotho," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(1), January.
    7. John Thornton, 1999. "Cointegration, causality and Wagner's Law in 19th century Europe," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 413-416.
    8. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    9. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Modelling Linkages between US and Asia‐Pacific Securitized Property Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-122.
    10. Christian Richter & Dimitrios Paparas, 2012. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Greece during the last 2 centuries," Working Papers 2012.2, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    12. J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2017. "An Anatomy of the Interrelationship between Equity and Mortgage REITs," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(3), pages 287-324.
    13. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Cristian C. Popescu & Laura Diaconu (Maxim), 2021. "Government Spending and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis on Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    16. Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2019. "Wagner on government spending and national income: A new look at an old relationship," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 636-646.
    17. Richard Tiffin & P. J. Dawson, 2002. "The Demand for Calories: Some Further Estimates from Zimbabwe," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 221-232, July.
    18. John L. Glascock & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang & Tingyu Zhou, 2018. "Can Investors Hold More Real Estate? Evidence from Statistical Properties of Listed REIT versus Non-REIT Property Companies in the U.S," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 274-302, February.
    19. P. J. Dawson & P. K. Dey, 2002. "Testing for the law of one price: rice market integration in Bangladesh," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 473-484.
    20. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's Law; Cointegration; Causality; disaggregated data; public expenditures; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.