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Contagion between United States and european markets during the recent crises

Author

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  • Muñoz, Mª Pilar
  • Márquez, María Dolores
  • Sánchez, Josep A.

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to detect the existence of financial contagion between the North American and European markets during the recent crises. To accomplish this, the relationships between the US and the Euro zone stock markets are considered, taking the daily equity prices of the Standard and Poor’s 500 as representative of the United States market and for the European market, the five most representative indexes. Time Series Factor Analysis (TSFA) procedure has allowed concentrating the information of the European indexes into a unique factor, which captures the underlying structure of the European return series. The relationship between the European factor and the US stock return series has been analyzed by means of the dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC). Once the DCC is estimated, the contagion between both markets is analyzed. Finally, in order to explain the sudden changes in dynamic US-EU correlation, a Markov switching model is fitted, using as input variables the macroeconomic ones associated with the monetary policies of the US as well as those related to uncertainty in the markets. The results show that there was contagion between the United States and European markets in the Subprime and Global Financial crises. The two-regime Markov switching model has helped to explain the variability of the pair-wise correlation. The first regime contains mostly the financially stable periods, and the dynamic correlations in this regime are explained by macroeconomic variables and other related with monetary policies in Europe and US. The second regime is explained mainly by the Federal Funds rate and the evolution of the Euro/US Exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Muñoz, Mª Pilar & Márquez, María Dolores & Sánchez, Josep A., 2011. "Contagion between United States and european markets during the recent crises," MPRA Paper 35993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35993
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Amira Akl Ahmed & Rania Ihab Naguib, 2018. "DCCs among Sector Indexes and Dynamic Causality between Foreign Exchange and Equity Sector Volatility: Evidence from Egypt," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 14-28, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Dynamic Conditional Correlation; Financial Markets; Markov Switching Model; Time Series Factor Analysis; Macroeconomic variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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