IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/34735.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A new method to estimate the risk of financial intermediaries

Author

Listed:
  • Delis, Manthos D
  • Tsionas, Efthymios

Abstract

In this paper we reconsider the formal estimation of the risk of financial intermediaries. Risk is modeled as the variability of the profit function of a representative intermediary, here bank, as formally considered in finance theory. In turn, banking theory suggests that risk is determined simultaneously with profits and other bank- and industry-level characteristics that cannot be considered predetermined when profit maximizing decisions of financial institutions are to be made. Thus, risk is endogenous. We estimate the model on a panel of US banks, spanning the period 1985q1-2010q2. The findings suggest that risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter and up to 2007. Indices of bank risk commonly used in the literature do not capture this trend and/or the scale of the increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Delis, Manthos D & Tsionas, Efthymios, 2011. "A new method to estimate the risk of financial intermediaries," MPRA Paper 34735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34735
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34735/1/MPRA_paper_34735.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37195/2/MPRA_paper_37195.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37196/1/MPRA_paper_37196.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40997/2/MPRA_paper_40997.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. W. B. Bos & M. Koetter, 2011. "Handling losses in translog profit models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 307-312.
    2. Felton, Andrew & Reinhart, Carmen M. (ed.), 2009. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II: June–December, 2008," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p199.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 175-212, April.
    6. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 1992. "The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 439-457, April.
    7. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    8. Mark J. Flannery & Kasturi P. Rangan, 2008. "What Caused the Bank Capital Build-up of the 1990s?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 391-429.
    9. Dangl, Thomas & Zechner, Josef, 2004. "Credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 183-204, April.
    10. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
    11. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    12. Degryse, Hans & Kim, Moshe & Ongena, Steven, 2009. "Microeconometrics of Banking Methods, Applications, and Results," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195340471.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2014, Bank of Finland.
    4. Delis, Manthos & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios, 2015. "Banks’ Risk Endogenous to Strategic Management Choices," MPRA Paper 64907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508211363 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508211363 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2015. "Firms’ risk endogenous to strategic management choices," Research Discussion Papers 16/2015, Bank of Finland.
    9. Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana, 2014. "Risk shifting in the US banking system: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 64-74.
    10. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2015. "Firms' risk endogenous to strategic management choices," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2015, Bank of Finland.
    11. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    12. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 309-339, August.
    14. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Anachit Bagntasarian & Emmanuel Mamatzakis, 2019. "Testing for the underlying dynamics of bank capital buffer and performance nexus," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 347-380, February.
    16. Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2007. "Bank capital shocks and portfolio risk: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 166-186, March.
    17. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Shajari , Parastoo & Shajari , Houshang, 2012. "Financial Soundness Indicators with Emphasis on Non-performing Loans in Iran's Banking System," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(3), pages 163-189, April.
    19. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Amanda C. Janosko & Dieter Gramlich & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "Supervising System Stress in Multiple Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    21. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    22. Elahi, M.A., 2011. "Essays on financial fragility," Other publications TiSEM 882f55bb-10dc-4e49-95ef-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    23. Andrew G Haldane & Glenn Hoggarth & Victoria Saporta, 2001. "Assessing financial system stability, efficiency and structure at the Bank of England," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 138-159, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Fajeau, Maxime, 2021. "Too much finance or too many weak instruments?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 14-36.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk of financial intermediaries; Endogenous risk; Full information maximum likelihood; Profit function; Duality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.