IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/29821.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Vietnamese Socio-economic Development Plan Revisited: Application of the 2003 Merged Model for Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Jensen, Henning Tarp
  • Tarp, Finn

Abstract

This paper investigates the Vietnamese Socio-economic Development Plan (2006-10) using the 2003 Merged Model for Vietnam, which was developed in Jensen & Tarp (2007). Initialization and calibration of the model is based on a financial 2003 SAM framework and an auxiliary 2002-2003 data set. Furthermore, an auxiliary 2004-2005 data base was used to run the model forward and target 2005 starting values for the 2006-2010 development plan projections. The paper sets out a so-called ‘SEDP Base Scenario’, which is based on constant calibrated Merged Model parameter values. The base scenario turns out to be internally inconsistent, as indicated by divergent behaviour among the four model-specific focal variables. Dynamic (time-dependent) adjustments to parameter values subsequently allows for the derivation of the ‘SEDP Consistent Scenario’. This scenario is internally consistent, in the sense that the model-specific focal variables settle down around sensible growth paths. The necessary parameter adjustments provide an indication of the structural assumptions underlying the SEDP development plan. These assumptions include (i) a strong initial drop in capital factor productivity (increasing capital-output ratio), (ii) a strong continuous drop in government foreign borrowing relative to export earnings, and an accompanying need to increase the government’s reliance on domestic capital markets, (iii) the continuation of a very high import elasticity with respect to GDP throughout the planning period, and (iv) the pursuit of a long run target for official foreign exchange reserves amounting to 9 weeks of imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "The Vietnamese Socio-economic Development Plan Revisited: Application of the 2003 Merged Model for Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29821/1/MPRA_paper_29821.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brixen, Peter & Tarp, Finn, 1996. "South Africa: Macroeconomic perspectives for the medium term," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 989-1001, June.
    2. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "The 2003 Merged Model for Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "The 2003 Merged Model for Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Channing Arndt & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow & Charles Fant & Len Tiu Wright, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Channing Arndt & Azhar Hussain & Sam Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2011. "Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-017, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Dal Belo Leite, João Guilherme & Langa, Felix Mario & von Maltitz, Graham & Lima Verde Leal, Manoel Regis & Barbosa Cortez, Luís Augusto, 2020. "Sugarcane outgrower schemes model: Friend or foe? A question for smallholder farmers in Mozambique," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    5. Alan R. Roe, 2018. "Extractive industries and development: Lessons from international experience for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-56, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Arndt, Channing & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Inequality and Poverty Impacts of Trade Distortions in Mozambique," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52794, World Bank.
    7. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    8. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Johannes Ziesmer & Ding Jin & Sneha D Thube & Christian Henning, 2023. "A Dynamic Baseline Calibration Procedure for CGE models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1331-1368, April.
    10. Brixen, Peter & Tarp, Finn, 1994. "A Simple Macroeconomic Framework for South Africa," MPRA Paper 62280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Understanding Mozambique's growth experience through an employment lens," WIDER Working Paper Series 109, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Arndt, Channing & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 092, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. António S. Cruz & Francisco Fernandes & Fausto J. Mafambissa & Francisco Pereira, 2018. "The construction sector in Mozambique: An overview," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-117, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Jobs and Welfare in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. César Salazar-Espinoza & Sam Jones, 2017. "The impact of infrastructure shocks on agricultural markets: Evidence from the Zambezi river in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-191, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2006. "A Bank-Fund projection framework with CGE features," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 103-132, February.
    17. World Bank, 2008. "Higher Fuel and Food Prices : Impacts and Responses for Mozambique," World Bank Publications - Reports 18909, The World Bank Group.
    18. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2001. "Evoluţia macromodelului economiei româneşti de tranzitie [The evolution of the Romanian model for the transition economy]," MPRA Paper 35798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Walid El Ansari & Reza Oskrochi & Ceri Phillips, 2009. "Engagement and Action for Health: The Contribution of Leaders’ Collaborative Skills to Partnership Success," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, January.
    20. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vietnam; Socio-economic Development; Merged Model; SAM framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29821. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.