IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21472.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Moore, Winston
  • Lewis-Bynoe, Denny
  • Howard, Stacia

Abstract

Since 1970, private sector credit has grown quite rapidly in the Caribbean. More recently, between 2004 and 2006, total real credit in the Caribbean has risen by a cumulative 55.7 percent, or approximately 19 percent per annum. In some countries, the rate of expansion has even been stronger, which is of concern given the likely negative macroeconomic consequences of credit booms. This paper attempts to identify the factors that have led to credit booms and conversely busts in the Caribbean, employing annual data for 13 Caribbean countries covering the period 1970 to 2006 in the analysis. This study employs a panel count data regression approach. Three key groups of variables are considered: (1) macroeconomic developments; (2) macroeconomic policy, and (3) external shocks. The reported results suggest that macroeconomic developments were the main determinants of credit booms in the Caribbean, with low inflation, high growth in GDP per capita, investment booms as well as less developed financial systems leading to the emergence of credit booms and conversely for busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Moore, Winston & Lewis-Bynoe, Denny & Howard, Stacia, 2010. "Credit Booms and Busts in the Caribbean," MPRA Paper 21472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21472/1/MPRA_paper_21472.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    4. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
    5. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    6. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    8. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, November.
    10. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    11. Blackburn, Keith & Hung, Victor T Y, 1998. "A Theory of Growth, Financial Development and Trade," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 107-124, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carter, Justin & Moore, Winston & Jackman, Mahalia, 2012. "Is the Magnitude of Household Debt in Barbados a Concern?," MPRA Paper 47791, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    2. Tongurai, Jittima & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2018. "The impact of the banking sector on economic structure and growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 193-207.
    3. Bianchi, Benedetta, 2018. "Structural credit ratios," ESRB Working Paper Series 85, European Systemic Risk Board.
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ten New EU Members," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 940, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
    6. Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17022, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen & Ms. Olga Sulla, 2013. "Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?," IMF Working Papers 2013/106, International Monetary Fund.
    8. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Anamaria Sova & Robert Sova, 2014. "The finance–growth nexus: evidence from ten new EU members," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 13, pages 217-234, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Eller, Markus & Haiss, Peter & Steiner, Katharina, 2006. "Foreign direct investment in the financial sector and economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe: The crucial role of the efficiency channel," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 300-319, December.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    12. Anne C. Maduka & Kevin O. Onwuka, 2013. "Financial Market Structure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria Data," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(1), pages 75-98, January.
    13. De la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler, Sergio, 2007. "Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 349, May.
    14. Beta Y. Gitaharie & Lana Soelistianingsih & Triasih Djutaharta, 2014. "Financial Inclusion: Household Access to Credit in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201401, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jan 2014.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ghossoub, Edgar A., 2023. "Economic growth, inflation, and banking sector competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung, 2017. "East Asian Financial and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 23845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. OZTURK, Ilhan, 2008. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 85-98.
    19. Raymond Fisman & Inessa Love, 2004. "Financial Development and Growth in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 10236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Wachtel, 2018. "Credit Deepening: Precursor to Growth or Crisis?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(1), pages 34-43, March.
    21. Benfratello, Luigi & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Sembenelli, Alessandro, 2008. "Banks and innovation: Microeconometric evidence on Italian firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 197-217, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Booms; Credit Busts; Caribbean; Count Data Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.