IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/117089.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

War and Peace in East Asia: Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap with China as a Rising Power

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Haider

Abstract

Many have noticed the rise of China and warned of underlying danger to regional stability in Northeast Asia leading to global instability. A discourse about whether China and the U.S. will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’s Trap” has begun. Some observers are concerned that the active maritime military action of China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait may lead to unexpected conflicts between China and other Northeast Asian actors with eventual US-China confrontation. I present some conceptual elaborations of “Thucydides’s Trap” from both a scientific realist view of causal depth and a deeper form of neoclassical realism in international relations with appropriate historiography. I offer evidence from recent history of Northeast Asian international relations that the trap is avoidable but avoiding it requires important confidence building measures. The neoclassical realist considerations of internal politics of key actors shows an overwhelming consensus regarding peaceful conflict resolution via a grand strategy of cooperation with some conflicts that can be resolved through negotiations in good faith. While a full blown theory of Thucydides’s Trap within the broader framework of power transition theory is still to be worked out, this work can also be seen as a step in that direction. Although detailed analysis of the best available current historical evidence from Northeast Asia within a critical neoclassical realist(CNR), or more detailed critical transneoclassical realist(CTNR) paradigm shows that the so-called “Thucydides’s Trap” is not inevitable, recognizing the actual opportunities and constraints in order to escape the trap has hardly begun. Since the consequences of an actual war are so severe, both conceptual analysis of sovereignty and power based on realist principles and applied consequentialist reasoning offer strong arguments for finding credible means to avoid the trap. This chapter points to some feasible steps in light of a careful reading of recent history of Northeast Asian relations and offers a tentative scientific realist conceptualization of the “Thucydides’s Trap.” In particular, the CNR theory based analysis already shows the limitations of the structural neorealism on which Mearsheimer explicitly and Allison implicitly base their arguments about US-PRC rivalry and tensions. Using the causally deeper CNR approach and the concrete case of tensions in Northeast Asia, the present work can be seen as a necessary step in the direction of developing an applicable theory of “Thucydides’s Trap” with sufficient causal depth and analytical reach within a yet broader and more useful global theory. This effort will be a further step towards building a complexity theory based multiplex cooperative new global order, or CTMNGO combining constructively a critical transneoclassical realism(CTNR) with global and regional cooperative institution building for our genuine planetary common good.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Haider, 2023. "War and Peace in East Asia: Avoiding Thucydides’s Trap with China as a Rising Power," MPRA Paper 117089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117089/1/MPRA_paper_117089.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Woosang Kim & Scott Gates, 2015. "Power transition theory and the rise of China," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 219-226, September.
    2. Monica Duffy Toft, 2007. "Population Shifts and Civil War: A Test of Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 243-269, July.
    3. Khan, Haider & Patomäki, Heikki, 2013. "A reconstructive critique of IPE and GPE from a critical scientific realist perspective: An alternative Keynesian-Kaleckian approach," MPRA Paper 49517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Okon E. Eminue & Henry U. Ufomba, 2011. "Modeling Terrorist Target Selection: Organski's Power Transition Theory," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 375-382, December.
    5. Khan, Haider, 2008. "Causal Depth contra Humean Empiricism: Aspects of a Scientific Realist Approach to Explanation," MPRA Paper 8297, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    6. Brian Efird & Jacek Kugler & Gaspare Genna, 2003. "From War to Integration: Generalizing Power Transition Theory," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 293-313, October.
    7. Douglas Lemke & Ronald L. Tammen, 2003. "Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 269-271, October.
    8. Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba, 2014. "Coffins versus cradles: Russian population, foreign policy, and power transition theory," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 205-221, June.
    9. Solingen, Etel, 2007. "Pax Asiatica versus Bella Levantina: The Foundations of War and Peace in East Asia and the Middle East," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 757-780, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiang Jun & Primiano Christopher B. & Huang Wei-hao, 2015. "Aggressive or Peaceful Rise? An Empirical Assessment of China’s Militarized Conflict, 1979–2010," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 301-325, August.
    2. Jihyun Kim, 2018. "The Clash of Power and Nationalism: The Sino-Japan Territorial Dispute," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, April.
    3. Sukhee Han, 2009. "China's Pursuit of Peaceful Power Transition," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 27-42, December.
    4. Sandra Lavenex & Omar Serrano & Tim Büthe, 2021. "Power transitions and the rise of the regulatory state: Global market governance in flux," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 445-471, July.
    5. Monica Duffy Toft, 2012. "Demography and national security: The politics of population shifts in contemporary Israel," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 21-42, March.
    6. Hasim Turker, 2024. "Charting a Course in Troubled Waters: Towards a New Cold War in Global Commons," Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, , vol. 11(1), pages 51-75, March.
    7. Jason Enia & Patrick James, 2015. "Regime Type, Peace, and Reciprocal Effects," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(2), pages 523-539, June.
    8. Stephen, Matthew D. & Parízek, Michal, 2019. "New Powers and the Distribution of Preferences in Global Trade Governance: From Deadlock and Drift to Fragmentation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(6), pages 735-758.
    9. Olsson, Ola & Valsecchi, Michele, 2010. "Quantifying Ethnic Cleansing: An Application to Darfur," Working Papers in Economics 479, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Carla Norrlof & Simon Reich, 2015. "American and Chinese leadership during the global financial crisis: Testing Kindleberger’s stabilization functions," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 227-250, September.
    11. Javier Vadell, 2019. "La iniciativa BRICS y China: entre la emergencia y la irrelevancia [A iniciativa BRICS e a China: entre a emergência e a irrelevância]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 29(2), pages 401-428, May-Augus.
    12. T.J. Pempel, 2011. "Reducing Security Tensions in Northeast Asia: Lessons from Economics and Institutions," Chapters, in: Jehoon Park & T. J. Pempel & Heungchong Kim (ed.), Regionalism, Economic Integration and Security in Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Matthew Fuhrmann, 2012. "Splitting Atoms: Why Do Countries Build Nuclear Power Plants?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 29-57, January.
    14. Bora Jeong & Hoon Lee, 2021. "US–China commercial rivalry, great war and middle powers," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 135-148, June.
    15. Priyanka Pandit, 2013. "China and the World Trade Organization," International Studies, , vol. 50(3), pages 255-271, July.
    16. Ragnhild Nordås, 2014. "Religious demography and conflict: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 146-166, June.
    17. Olive Emil Wetter & Valentino Wüthrich, 2015. "“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism," Defense & Security Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 185-198, September.
    18. Gilles Grandjean & Petros G. Sekeris, 2017. "The timing of contests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 137-149, March.
    19. Victor Alexandre G. Teixeira, 2021. "The Hegemony’s Contest in the South China Sea," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    20. Jo Jakobsen & Thomas Halvorsen, 2019. "Geographical and temporal patterns of interstate security competition: Global and regional evidence," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 226-246, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Interest; Critical Neoclassical Realism(CNR); CTNR; Complexity Theory-based Multiplex New Global Order(CTMNGO); US-PRC Relations; Northeast Asian International Relations; Thucydides’s Trap; Scientific Realism; China’s Foreign Policy; US Grand Strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.