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Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?

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  • Louis, Rosmy
  • Balli, Faruk
  • Osman, Mohammad

Abstract

AGCC countries' output is heavily dichotomized into oil and non-oil. The oil shocks have similar effects on all member countries but little is known about their responses to non-oil shocks. This paper sets out to determine whether (1) aggregate demand (AD) and non-oil supply shocks (AS) are symmetrical across these countries to justify their suitability for monetary union; and (2) whether there is any commonality of shocks with the United States and the three major European countries, namely France, Germany, and Italy, which can warrant the choice of either the US dollar or the Euro as the anchor for the expected common currency of the bloc. We use bivariate structural vector autoregression models identified with long-run restrictions a la Blanchard and Quah (1989) to extract the shocks. Our results show that (a) AD shocks are unequivocally symmetrical but non-oil AS shocks are weakly symmetrical across AGCC countries thereby giving a green light for monetary union; (b) neither AD nor AS shocks are symmetrical between AGCC countries and the selected European countries; (c) AGCC's AD shocks are symmetrical with the US but non-oil AS shock are not. We therefore surmise that the US dollar is a far better candidate for the new currency than the Euro since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in AGCC countries. Our results hold even when we consider the AGCC countries as a bloc. This paper makes a valuable contribution to AGCC decision makers who have been wrestling with the dilemma of whether to revalue or to depeg their actual currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11611
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
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    9. Belkacem Laabas and Imed Limam, "undated". "Are GCC Countries Ready for Currency Union?," API-Working Paper Series 0203, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    10. Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn & Suleiman Abu‐Bader, 2008. "On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 612-630, May.
    11. Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2003. "Monetary Union Among Member Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/006, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Pattanaik, Sitikantha, 2007. "How Closely the GCC Approximates an Optimum Currency Area?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 573-597.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magda Kandil & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2012. "Is The Announced Monetary Union In Gcc Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-18.
    2. Ben Abdesslem, Amel, 2013. "L’union monétaire des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe : viabilité et perspectives d’avenir," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 191-206, Septembre.
    3. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    4. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    5. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2010. "Determinants of Time-Varying Sensitivity of MENA Countries to Global Shocks: A State Space Approach," Working Papers 530, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    6. Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
    7. Abdulrazak Al Faris, 2010. "Currency Union in the GCC Countries: History, Prerequisites and Implications," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AGCC; monetary union; shocks symmetry; currency anchor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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