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Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach

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Author Info
Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez () (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

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Abstract

This paper presents a framework to undertake likelihood-based inference in nonlinear dynamic equilibrium economies. We develop a Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers an estimate of the likelihood function of the model using simulation methods. This likelihood can be used for parameter estimation and for model comparison. The algorithm can deal both with nonlinearities of the economy and with the presence of non-normal shocks. We show consistency of the estimate and its good performance in finite simulations. This new algorithm is important because the existing empirical literature that wanted to follow a likelihood approach was limited to the estimation of linear models with Gaussian innovations. We apply our procedure to estimate the structural parameters of the neoclassical growth model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 04-001.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:04-001

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Related research
Keywords: Likelihood-Based Inference; Dynamic Equilibrium Economies; Nonlinear Filtering; Sequential Monte Carlo);

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Linnea Polgreen & Pedro Silos, 2005. "Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a sensitivity analysis," Working Paper 2005-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Learning and monetary policy shifts," Working Paper 2003-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000822, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael P. Keane & Robert M. Sauer, 2006. "Classification Error in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models: Implications for Female Labor Supply Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 2332, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrium Economies," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Pytlarczyk, Ernest, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model for the German economy within the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2001. "Nominal versus real wage rigidities: A Bayesian approach," Working Paper 2001-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alejandro Justiniano & Northwestern University, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 219, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marc P. Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2005. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 431, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection," NBER Working Papers 14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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