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The impact of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia

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  • Blane D. Lewis

Abstract

The extent to which pre-electoral coalitions (PECs) influence executive elections in presidential systems has not been subject to rigorous empirical study. This paper uses regression discontinuity methods to identify the causal effect of PEC size on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia. The study finds that mayoral candidates backed by PECs comprising political parties that control council seat shares exceeding first-round electoral vote thresholds are around 18-24 percentage points more likely to win those elections than their counterparts supported by smaller-sized PECs.

Suggested Citation

  • Blane D. Lewis, 2018. "The impact of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2018-20, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2018-20
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    File URL: https://acde.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/crawford01_cap_anu_edu_au/2018-08/final_2018_-_20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    2. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    3. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    4. Golder, Sona Nadenichek, 2006. "Pre-Electoral Coalition Formation in Parliamentary Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 193-212, April.
    5. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    6. Kellam, Marisa, 2017. "Why Pre-Electoral Coalitions in Presidential Systems?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 391-411, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pre-election coalitions; presidential systems; subnational elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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