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An Alternative Method of Forecasting Divorce Rates Based on the Parametric Sickle Model

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  • Wolfinger, Nicholas H.

Abstract

Demographers routinely predict that between 40 and 50 percent of new marriages will end in divorce. Based on life tables, these forecasts entail strong assumptions that current marriages will behave in the future like others did in the past. I use data from the 1995 June Marriage and Fertility Supplement of the Current Population Survey to test an alternative method of forecasting divorce rates: predictions based on the parametric sickle model of marital instability. The sickle model corresponds almost perfectly to completed marriage cohorts (30 year marriages unlikely to ever dissolve), but offered implausibly low divorce rate forecasts for newer marriages. It is therefore unlikely to be useful for forecasting divorce rates.

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  • Wolfinger, Nicholas H., 2018. "An Alternative Method of Forecasting Divorce Rates Based on the Parametric Sickle Model," SocArXiv txqsm, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:txqsm
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/txqsm
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Goldstein, 1999. "The leveling of divorce in the united states," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(3), pages 409-414, August.
    2. Plamen Nikolov & Karen Gardiner & Mike Fishman, 2003. "State Policies to promote marriage," HEW 0306003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pamela Smock, 1993. "The economic costs of marital disruption for Young Women over the past two decades," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(3), pages 353-371, August.
    4. Matthew McKeever & Nicholas H. Wolfinger, 2001. "Reexamining the Economic Costs of Marital Disruption for Women," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 82(1), pages 202-217, March.
    5. Teresa Martin & Larry Bumpass, 1989. "Recent trends in marital disruption," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(1), pages 37-51, February.
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