Multi-sectoral emission impacts of electric vehicle transition in China and India

Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) is a central strategy for reducing carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. Although the emission impacts of reduced gasoline combustion and increased power generation are well recognized, the impacts of growing EV manufacturing activities remain understudied. Here we focus on China and India, two of the fastest growing EV markets. Compared to a 2030 baseline scenario, we find national emissions of air pollutants could increase in certain high EV penetration scenarios as a result of the emission-intensive mineral production and battery manufacturing processes. Notably, national sulfur dioxide emissions could increase by 16%-79% if all batteries have nickel- and cobalt-based cathodes and are produced domestically. Subnational regions that are abundant in battery-related minerals might emerge as future pollution hotspots. Our study thus highlights the importance of EV supply chain decisions and related manufacturing processes in understanding the environmental impacts of the EV transition.