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Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap

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Author Info
George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)
Seppo Honkapohja (University of Helsinki and Bank of Finland)

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Abstract

We consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low inflation steady state, below the target inflation rate. Under adaptive learning dynamics we find the additional possibility of a liquidity trap, in which the economy slips below this low inflation steady state and is driven to an even lower inflation floor that is supported by a switch to an aggressive money supply rule. Fiscal policy alone cannot push the economy out of the liquidity trap. However, raising the threshold at which the money supply rule is employed can dislodge the economy from the liquidity trap and ensure a return to the target equilibrium.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2003-33_Evans_Liquidity_Trap.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2003-33.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 30 Apr 2003
Date of revision: 06 Jul 2004
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-33

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2003. "Learning Dynamics and Endogenous Currency Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 132, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. N. Williams, 2002. "Stability and Long Run Equilibrium in Stochastic Fictitious Play," Princeton Economic Theory Working Papers cbeeeb49cc8afc83f125df5a8, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy Under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  4. George Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Kiel Working Papers 1341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James Bullard, & In-Koo Cho, 2003. "Escapist Policy Rules," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/38, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1437-1437. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Rersearch," CEPR Discussion Papers 6640, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ronald B. Davies & Paul Shea, 2003. "Adaptive Learning with a Unit Root: An Application to the Current Account," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-15, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 10 Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
  9. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  10. Orlando Gomes, . "Volatility, Heterogeneous Agents and Chaos," The Electronic Journal of Evolutionary Modeling and Economic Dynamics, IFReDE - Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 14391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Documents de Travail 161, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  13. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Kauko, Karlo, 2003. "Interlinking securities settlement systems: A strategic commitment?," Research Discussion Papers 26/2003, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Vauhkonen, Jukka, 2003. "Are adverse selection models of debt robust to changes in market structure?," Research Discussion Papers 28/2003, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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