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Reassessing the regressivity of the VAT

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  • Alastair Thomas

Abstract

This paper reassesses the often-made conclusion that the VAT is regressive, drawing on tax microsimulation models constructed for an unprecedented 27 OECD countries. The paper first assesses the competing methodological approaches used in previous distributional studies, highlighting the distorting impact of savings patterns on cross-sectional analysis when VAT burdens are measured relative to income. As argued by IFS (2011), measuring VAT burdens relative to expenditure – thereby removing the influence of savings – is likely to provide a more meaningful picture of the distributional impact of the VAT. On this basis, the VAT is found to be either roughly proportional or slightly progressive in most of the 27 OECD countries examined. Nevertheless, results for a small number of countries highlight that broad-based VAT systems that have few reduced VAT rates or exemptions can produce a small degree of regressivity. Results also show that even a roughly proportional VAT can still have significant equity implications for the poor – potentially pushing some households into poverty. This emphasises the importance of ensuring the progressivity of the tax-benefit system as a whole in order to compensate poor households for the loss in purchasing power from paying VAT. In the broader context of the COVID-19 crisis, the findings of the paper suggest there may be scope in many countries for VAT reform to help address revenue needs, as this revenue may be generated with less significant distributional effects than previously thought. While standard VAT rates are high in many countries, OECD evidence shows that scope exists to broaden VAT bases. Nevertheless, any VAT increases, including VAT base broadening measures that impact the poor, should be accompanied by compensation measures for poorer households, such as targeted tax credits or benefit payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alastair Thomas, 2020. "Reassessing the regressivity of the VAT," OECD Taxation Working Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ctpaaa:49-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b76ced82-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Nobilis, Benedek, 2021. "A magyar adórendszer versenyképességének helyreállítása a 2010-es években [Restoring the Competitiveness of the Hungarian Tax System in the 2010s]," Taxation Policy Papers 2, Ministry of Finance, Department of Tax Policy and International Taxation.
    2. Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2022. "Consumption inequality and poverty in Greece: Evidence and lessons from a decade-long crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-261.
    3. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S. K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence From India's Adoption of a Value‐Added Tax," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 569-602, September.
    4. Cesar Revoredo-Giha & Luiza Toma & Faical Akaichi, 2020. "An Analysis of the Tax Incidence of VAT to Milk in Malawi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Cristina Cirillo & Lucia Imperioli & Marco Manzo, 2021. "The Value Added Tax Simulation Model: VATSIM-DF (II)," Working Papers wp2021-12, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Department of Finance.
    6. Mahfoudh Hussein Mgammal & Ebrahim Mohammed Al-Matari & Talal Fawzi Alruwaili, 2023. "Value-added-tax rate increases: A comparative study using difference-in-difference with an ARIMA modeling approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Sijbren Cnossen, 2022. "The C-inefficiency of the EU-VAT and what can be done about it," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 215-236, February.
    8. Stuart Adam & Helen Miller, 2021. "The economic arguments for and against a wealth tax," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3-4), pages 457-483, September.
    9. Romero-Jordán, Desiderio & del Río, Pablo, 2022. "Analysing the drivers of the efficiency of households in electricity consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Alastair Thomas, 2022. "Reassessing the regressivity of the VAT," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 23-38, March.
    11. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S.K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence from India’s Adoption of a Value-Added Tax," Working Papers 48, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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