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Working for Families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand

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This paper examines the labour supply responses to the Working for Families (WfF) package of welfare reforms, which was fully implemented in 2008. The policy changes were implemented with the aim to encourage benefit recipients to participate in the labour market and to address income adequacy issues for families with children. The results presented in this paper are obtained using the behavioural microsimulation model for New Zealand, TAXMOD-B. We used the Household Economic Survey (HES) in 2008/09 to capture the full effect of the policy. It is estimated that the introduction of the new policy increases labour supply of sole parents by an average of 0.62 hours per week, but decreases labour supply of married men and women by 0.10 and 0.50 hours per week, respectively. The negative effects for married couples with dependents are about 16 and 41 times larger than for married couples without dependents, with the largest difference observed for married women. A good way of validating the results is by comparing our exante simulated effects of a policy change with the ex-post estimated effects of the policy change after it has been introduced. While it is often difficult to find policy changes which could be used to test TAXMOD-B in a similar way, the Ministry of Social Development (MSD) and Inland Revenue department (IR) have estimated labour supply effects after the WfF changes were introduced. The overall labour supply results from the simulation are in the same direction and of similar magnitudes as the ex-post results from the WfF evaluation reports. Our analysis shows that after allowing for labour supply changes, the cost of the policy change increases for couples but decreases for sole parents. These changes in labour supply are reflected in the tax revenue, family payment and benefit income changes for both subgroups. Overall, our results show that the WfF reform reduced the incidence and intensity of poverty as well as income inequality.

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  • Penny Mok & Joseph Mercante, 2014. "Working for Families changes: The effect on labour supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/18, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:14/18
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2014-11/wp-14-18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
    2. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb & Yi-Ping Tseng & Ha Vu, 2008. "The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 285-325, June.
    3. Omar A Aziz & Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/13, New Zealand Treasury.
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    5. Hielke Buddelmeyer & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2007. "Tax Policy Design and Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4235.
    6. Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2014. "Estimation of Labour Supply in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Iris Claus & Norman Gemmell & Michelle Harding & David White (ed.), 2010. "Tax Reform in Open Economies," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13704.
    8. Arthur van Soest, 1995. "Structural Models of Family Labor Supply: A Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 63-88.
    9. Joseph Mercante & Penny Mok, 2014. "Estimation of wage equations for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. Guyonne R. Kalb, 2000. "Labour Supply and Welfare Participation in Australian Two-Adult Households: Accounting for Involuntary Unemployment and the 'Cost' of Part-time Work," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers bp-35, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    11. John Creedy, 1998. "Measuring Poverty: An Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(1), pages 82-89, March.
    12. John Fitzgerald & Tim Maloney & Gail Pacheco, 2008. "The impact of recent changes in family assistance on partnering and women's employment in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 17-57.
    13. Jenkins, Stephen P & Lambert, Peter J, 1997. "Three 'I's of Poverty Curves, with an Analysis of UK Poverty Trends," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 317-327, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Income Tax and Transfer Policy Changes in New Zealand: 1988-2013," Working Paper Series 20839, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. John Creedy & Penny Mok, 2017. "Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 60-78, January.
    3. John Creedy & Penny Mok, 2017. "Labour supply in New Zealand and the 2010 tax and transfer changes," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 60-78, January.
    4. Nolan, Matt, 2018. "Income Tax and Transfer Policy Changes in New Zealand: 1988-2013," Working Paper Series 7658, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Working for Families; labour supply; discrete choice model; microsimulation; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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