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Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment

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  • Andrew C. Harvey

Abstract

This article shows how new time series models can be used to track the progress of an epidemic, forecast key variables and evaluate the effects of policies. A class of univariate time series models was developed by Harvey and Kattuman (2020). Here the framework is extended to modelling the relationship between two or more series. The role of common trends is discussed, and it is shown that when there is balanced growth in the logarithms of the growth rates of the cumulated series, simple regression models can be used to forecast using leading indicators. Data on daily deaths from Covid-19 in Italy and the UK provides an example. When growth is not balanced, the model can be extended by including a stochastic trend: the viability of this model is investigated by examining the relationship between new cases and deaths in the Florida second wave of summer 2020. The balanced growth framework is then used as the basis for policy evaluation by showing how some variables can serve as control groups for a target variable. This approach is used to investigate the consequences of Sweden's soft lockdown coronavirus policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. Harvey, 2020. "Time series models for epidemics: leading indicators, control groups and policy assessment," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 517, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:517
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    3. Andrew Harvey & Chia‐Hui Chung, 2000. "Estimating the underlying change in unemployment in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(3), pages 303-309.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Baloda, 2023. "The Tech Decoupling," Papers 2304.00510, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balanced growth; Co-integration; Covid-19; Gompertz curve; Kalman filter; Stochastic trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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