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Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception

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Author Info
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Aaron Tornell

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Abstract

We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coeffcients in the 'Fama' regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the U.S., these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9391.

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Date of creation: Dec 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9391

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-9, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  3. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
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  4. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Emine Boz, 2006. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? An Informational Frictions Explanation of Emerging Markets Crises," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 19, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Frydman, R. & Goldberg, M.D., 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 03-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1057, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Discussion Papers 03-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," Working Papers 03.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jan Brůha & Alexis Derviz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 318-343, July. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christian Pierdzioch, 2003. "Noise Trading and the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Nominal and Real Exchange Rates," Kiel Working Papers 1140, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beleifs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas," UCLA Economics Online Papers 265, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Emine Boz, 2007. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/223, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Productivity Shocks and Delayed Exchange-Rate Overshooting," Kiel Working Papers 1199, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  13. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve," Working Paper 2008-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mikael Bask, 2003. "Technical Trading at the Currency Market Increases the Overshooting Effect," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 72-80, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
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