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Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

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Andrew K. Rose

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Abstract

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9273.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9273

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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  1. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-national Evidence," Electronic Working Papers 99-003, University of Maryland, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1981. "On the Problem of Missing Data in Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 579-86, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alston, Richard M & Kearl, J R & Vaughan, Michael B, 1992. "Is There a Consensus among Economists in the 1990's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 203-09, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kearl, J R, et al, 1979. "A Confusion of Economists?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 28-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alan Deardorff, 1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 7-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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