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Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy

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Author Info
Ernesto Talvi
Carlos A. Vegh

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Abstract

Based on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during expansions, while the reverse is true in recessions). To explain this puzzle, we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending. Given this distortion, a government that faces large (and perfectly anticipated) fluctuations in the tax base will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy. We argue that the differences in fiscal policy between the G-7 countries and developing countries can be traced back to the fact that the tax base is much more volatile in developing countries than in the G-7 countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7499.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7499

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Working Papers 94/85, International Monetary Fund.
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  2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A & Guidotti, Pablo E, 1993. "On the Flexibility of Monetary Policy: The Case of the Optimal Inflation Tax," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 667-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1981. "Output Effects of Government Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1086-1121, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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