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Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan During the 1990s: Financial or Real?

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Taizo Motonishi
Hirshi Yoshikawa

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Abstract

Corporate investment is the most important factor to explain the long stagnation of Japan during the 1990's. Using the Bank of Japan diffusion indices of real profitability' and banks' willingness to lend', we estimate investment functions for four groups of firms: large/small and manufacturing/non-manufacturing. Our results suggest that for large firms, financing constraints are not significant whereas the converse is true for small firms. A fall of investment during 1992-94 is largely explained by real factors. However, the credit crunch occurred beginning 1997 and it lowered the growth rate of GDP by 1.6%.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7351.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7351

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ueda, Kazuo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1986. "Financial Volatility and the q Theory of Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(29), pages 11-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Kenneth D. West, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and the Recent Business Cycle in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 277-344 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kaplan, Steven N & Zingales, Luigi, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215, February.
  6. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1989. "Corporate structure, liquidity, and investment: evidence from Japanese industrial groups," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  1. Andolfatto, David, 2003. "Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(4), pages 1-20, December. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Transmission of Liquidity Shock to Bank Credit: Evidence from the Deposit Insurance Reform in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wako Watanabe, 2004. "Prudential Regulation, the Credit Crunch" and the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0617, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
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