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The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability

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Martin Feldstein

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Abstract

EMU would be an economic liability. A single currency would cause at most small trade and investment gains but would raise average cyclical unemployment and would probably raise inflation, perpetuate structural unemployment, and increase the risk of protectionism. EMU is nevertheless being pursued in order to create a political union. Fundamental disagreements among member states about economic policies, foreign and military policies, and the sharing of political power are likely to create future intra-European conflicts. A united Europe would be a formidable participant in the 21st century's global balance of power, with uncertain consequences for world stability and peace.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6150.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6150

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F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General

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