IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5054.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Feldstein

Abstract

This paper reexamines the results of my 1974 paper on Social Security and saving with the help of an additional twenty-one years of data. The estimates presented here reconfirm that each dollar of Social Security wealth (SSW) reduces private saving by between two and three cents. The parameter estimates for the postwar period and for the entire sample since 1930 are very similar. The correction of the error in the original SSW series between 1958 and 1971 therefore does not significantly affect the original results. The estimated effect of SSW is robust with respect to the addition of a variety of variables that have been suggested in previous critiques of the original study. In the aggregate, the parameter values imply that the Social Security program currently reduces overall private saving by nearly 60 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5054
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5054.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Martin Feldstein & Robert J. Barro, 1978. "The Impact of Social Security on Private Saving: Evidence from the U.S. Time Series," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 936368, September.
    3. Feldstein, Martin S, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 630-642, June.
    4. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    5. Leimer, Dean R & Lesnoy, Selig D, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: New Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 606-629, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(2), pages 151-64, June.
    2. repec:dpr:wpaper:0905 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2014. "The Life and Work Of Martin Stuart (“Marty”) Feldstein," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201410, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    4. H. Yigit Aydede, 2007. "Saving and Social Security Wealth: A Case of Turkey," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-03, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    5. Charles S. Wassell, Jr., 2018. "Social Security and saving: A time-series econometrics pedagogical example (with code)," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 103-114, January.
    6. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2005. "The Effects of Social Security on Private Savings: A Reappraisal of the Time Series Evidence," MPRA Paper 19032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. H. Yigit Aydede, 2007. "Expected Social Security Wealth Simulations and Generational Fairness of the Turkish PAYG System," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-21, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    8. Jonathan Gruber & Aaron Yelowitz, 1999. "Public Health Insurance and Private Savings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1249-1274, December.
    9. Annette N. Brown & Drew B. Cameron & Benjamin D. K. Wood, 2014. "Quality evidence for policymaking: I'll believe it when I see the replication," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 215-235, September.
    10. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    11. Uthoff, Andras, 1996. "Promoción del ahorro y los sistemas de pensiones," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34258, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Franklin Mixon, 2002. "Social security trust fund flows and the welfare costs of rent seeking," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(8), pages 975-979.
    13. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1987. "Uncertain Lifetimes, Pensions, and Individual Saving," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 175-210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2007. "Viewpoint: Replication in economics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 715-733, August.
    15. Marc Robinson, 1983. "Social Security and Physical Capital: An Interpretation of the Evidence, Lessons and Outlook," UCLA Economics Working Papers 307, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Hamermesh, Daniel S., 2007. "Replication in Economics," IZA Discussion Papers 2760, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Yamada, Tetsuji, 1990. "The effects of Japanese social security retirement benefits on personal saving and elderly labor force behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 327-363, December.
    18. Marek Loužek, 2006. "Má důchodová reforma se zadlužením smysl? [Has pension reform with indebtedness a sense?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(2), pages 247-260.
    19. Garret Christensen & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Transparency, Reproducibility, and the Credibility of Economics Research," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 920-980, September.
    20. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute Gradual Privatization Proposal," MPRA Paper 42372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. David Blake, 2004. "The impact of wealth on consumption and retirement behaviour in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 555-576.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.