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A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons

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Author Info
Philippe Jorion
Frederic Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper extends previous work on the information in the term structure at longer maturities to other countries besides the United states, using a newly constructed data set for 1 to 5 year interest rates from Britain, West Germany and Switzerland. Even with wide differences in inflation processes across these countries, there is we find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant forecasting ability for future changes in inflation, particularly so at long maturities. On the other hand, the ability of the term structure to forecast future changes in 1-year interest rates is somewhat weaker; only at the very longest horizon (5 years) is there significant forecasting ability for interest rate changes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3574.

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Date of creation: Oct 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3574

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "The Real Interest Rate: A Multi-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 1047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rolfo, Jacques, 1984. " An International Study of Tax Effects on Government Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1988. " The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 339-56, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Inflation and Real Interest Rates on Assets with Different Risk Characteristics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 699-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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