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The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission

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Ben Bernanke

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Abstract

First, we show that the interest rate on Federal funds is extremely informative about future movements of real macroeconomic variables, more so than monetary aggregates or other interest rates. Next, we argue that the reason for this forecasting is that the funds rate sensitively records shocks to the supply of (not the demand for) bank reserves, i.e. the funds rate is a good indicator of monetary policy actions. Finally, using innovations to the fuels rate as a measure of changes in monetary policy, we present evidence consistent with the view that monetary policy works at least in part through "credit" (that is, bank loans) as well as through "money" (that is, bank deposits) - even though bank loans fail to Granger-cause real variables.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3487.

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Date of creation: Oct 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3487

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Avery, Robert B., 1979. "Modeling monetary policy as an unobserved variable," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-311, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alan S. Blinder & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1983. "Money, Credit Constraints, and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 1084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist, 1987. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation," Staff Report 108, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1992. "Money, Income and Prices After the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 2852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  8. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
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  9. Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordon, 1968. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 11-23. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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