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On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Valerie R. Boctor
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Using data from a large survey of American households, we compare density forecasts elicited with bins- and scenarios-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within-person discrepancy is smaller, but still discernible, for unemployment expectations. The discrepancy in responses is systematically related to sociodemographic characteristics of respondents. The differences shed light on the significance of priming in bins-based inflation density forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerie R. Boctor & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2024. "On Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions of Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32406
    Note: ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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