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Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future

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  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

This paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real rates (r̄) may not always furnish an accurate guide to the rate appropriate for short-term monetary policy (r*). It argues further that effective monetary should consider not only equilibrium in the market for domestic goods, but also the current account balance, financial conditions (including capital flows), and imperfect policy credibility. Equilibrium long-term real interest rates have risen recently according to market indicators. However, the main underlying factors that have pushed real interest rates down since the 1980s and 1990s – notably demographic shifts, lower productivity growth, corporate market power, and safe asset demand relative to supply – do not appear poised to reverse strongly enough to drive a big and durable rise in global real interest rates over the coming years. Low equilibrium interest rates may well continue periodically to bedevil monetary policy and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld, 2023. "Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future," NBER Working Papers 31949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31949
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    Cited by:

    1. Alice Albonico & Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Active or Passive?," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2024-02 Classification-E3, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    2. Grishchenko, V. & Sinyakov, A., 2024. "Demography and equilibrium interest rates: Competing approaches and evidence from Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 229-239.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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