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A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940

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  • Christina Romer
  • Jeffrey A. Miron

Abstract

The paper derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884-1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies of industrial activity, by only using component series that are consistent over time, and by not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively unimportant seasonal fluctuations, and has cyclical turning points that are grossly similar to but subtly different from existing series.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Romer & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940," NBER Working Papers 3172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3172
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor Zarnowitz, 1987. "The Regularity of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    4. Romer, Christina, 1986. "Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 1-37, February.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    2. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. gregory, paul, 2020. "Measuring the Spanish Flu’s Economic Impact Using Historical Macroeconomic Statistics," MPRA Paper 100892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mark A. Carlson & David C. Wheelock, 2018. "Furnishing an “Elastic Currency”: The Founding of the Fed and the Liquidity of the U.S. Banking System," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(1), pages 17-44.
    5. Ghassem A. Homaifar & Jonathan Adongo & Kevin M. Zhao, 2013. "The long-run relationship between stock return dispersion and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 943-952, March.

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