IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/31568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Causal Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Investments and Generation: The Role of Heterogeneity and Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Deschenes
  • Christopher Malloy
  • Gavin G. McDonald

Abstract

Despite a 30-year long history, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) remain controversial and debates continue to surround their efficacy in leading the low-carbon transition in the electricity sector. Contributing to the ongoing debates is the lack of definitive causal evidence on their impact on investments in renewable capacity and generation. This paper provides the most detailed analysis to date of the impact of RPSs on renewable electricity capacity investments and on generation. We use state-level data from 1990-2019 and recent econometric methods designed to address dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects in a staggered adoption panel data design. We find that, on average, RPS policies increase wind generation capacity by 600-1200 MW, a 44% increase, but have no significant effect on investments in solar capacity. Additionally, we demonstrate that RPSs have slow dynamic effects: most of the capacity additions occur 5 years after RPS implementation. Estimates for wind and solar electricity generation mimic those for capacity investments. We also find similar results using an alternate treatment definition that allows states to meet their RPS requirements with pre-existing renewable generation and renewable generation from nearby states.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Deschenes & Christopher Malloy & Gavin G. McDonald, 2023. "Causal Effects of Renewable Portfolio Standards on Renewable Investments and Generation: The Role of Heterogeneity and Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 31568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31568
    Note: EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31568.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2019. "External Impacts of Local Energy Policy: The Case of Renewable Portfolio Standards," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 187-213.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Eli Ben‐Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2022. "Synthetic controls with staggered adoption," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 351-381, April.
    4. Kline Patrick & Santos Andres, 2012. "A Score Based Approach to Wild Bootstrap Inference," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 23-41, August.
    5. Bento, Antonio M. & Garg, Teevrat & Kaffine, Daniel, 2018. "Emissions reductions or green booms? General equilibrium effects of a renewable portfolio standard," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 78-100.
    6. Ann Wolverton & Ron Shadbegian & Wayne Gray, 2022. "The U.S. Manufacturing Sector’s Response to Higher Electricity Prices: Evidence from State-Level Renewable Portfolio Standards," Working Papers 22-47, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Upton, Gregory B. & Snyder, Brian F., 2017. "Funding renewable energy: An analysis of renewable portfolio standards," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 205-216.
    8. Thomas P. Lyon, 2016. "Drivers and Impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 141-155, October.
    9. Brantly Callaway & Andrew Goodman-Bacon & Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with a Continuous Treatment," Papers 2107.02637, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    10. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    11. A. Belloni & V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández‐Val & C. Hansen, 2017. "Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 233-298, January.
    12. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    13. Rachel Feldman and Arik Levinson, 2023. "Renewable Portfolio Standards," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    14. Gireesh Shrimali, Gabriel Chan, Steffen Jenner, Felix Groba and Joe Indvik, 2015. "Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards for In-State Renewable Deployment: Accounting for Policy Heterogeneity," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Ye Luo, 2018. "The Sorted Effects Method: Discovering Heterogeneous Effects Beyond Their Averages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1911-1938, November.
    16. Shakeeb Khan & Elie Tamer, 2010. "Irregular Identification, Support Conditions, and Inverse Weight Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 2021-2042, November.
    17. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    2. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    3. Don Fullerton & Chi L. Ta, 2022. "What Determines Effectiveness of Renewable Energy Standards? General Equilibrium Analytical Model and Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9565, CESifo.
    4. Vinish Shrestha, 2022. "Revisiting the Effects of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking Outcomes," Working Papers 2022-02, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    5. Isabelle Chort & Berk Öktem, 2023. "Agricultural shocks, coping policies and deforestation: evidence from the coffee leaf rust epidemic in mexico," Working Papers hal-03715600, HAL.
    6. Xin Nie & Jianxian Wu & Han Wang & Weijuan Li & Chengdao Huang & Lihua Li, 2022. "Contributing to carbon peak: Estimating the causal impact of eco‐industrial parks on low‐carbon development in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1578-1593, August.
    7. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    8. Shibashish Mukherjee & Sorin M.S. Krammer, 2024. "When the going gets tough : Board gender diversity in the wake of a major crisis," Post-Print hal-04522722, HAL.
    9. Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2021. "Two-Way Fixed Effects and Differences-in-Differences with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: A Survey," Papers 2112.04565, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    10. Isabelle Chort & Berk Öktem, 2024. "Agricultural shocks, coping policies and deforestation: Evidence from the coffee leaf rust epidemic in Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 1020-1057, May.
    11. Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfoeuille & F'elix Pasquier & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2022. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators for Treatments Continuously Distributed at Every Period," Papers 2201.06898, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    12. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 31-66.
    13. Robert Reinhardt, 2022. "Shaking up Foreign Finance: FDI in a Post-Disaster World," Working Papers halshs-03908250, HAL.
    14. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    15. Huber, Martin, 2019. "An introduction to flexible methods for policy evaluation," FSES Working Papers 504, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    16. Matteo Lippi Bruni & Cristina Ugolini & Rossella Verzulli & Anna Caterina Leucci, 2023. "The impact of Community Health Centers on inappropriate use of emergency services," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 375-394, February.
    17. Jha, Chandan Kumar & Joshi, Swarup, 2023. "Municipal bankruptcies and crime," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    18. Gregory Faletto, 2023. "Fused Extended Two-Way Fixed Effects for Difference-in-Differences with Staggered Adoptions," Papers 2312.05985, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    19. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    20. Mareen Bastiaans & Robert Dur & Anne C. Gielen, 2023. "Activating the Long-Term Inactive: Labor Market and Mental Health Effects," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-003/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.