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Social Security and the Determinants of Full and Partial Retirement: A Competing Risks Analysis

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  • Glenn T. Sueyoshi

Abstract

Empirical analyses of retirement typically assume a single form of retirement. In this paper, I consider the determinants of retirement in a competing risks model which allows for full and partial retirement. Simulation results indicate that the large increase in Social Security benefits in the early 1970s has had moderate effects upon retirement, increasing the probability of early full retirement (before age 65) by less than 5 percent and reducing the probability of partial retirement by 1-2 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn T. Sueyoshi, 1989. "Social Security and the Determinants of Full and Partial Retirement: A Competing Risks Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
    2. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gruber, Jonathan & Madrian, Brigitte C, 1995. "Health-Insurance Availability and the Retirement Decision," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 938-948, September.
    2. Hanel, Barbara, 2010. "Financial incentives to postpone retirement and further effects on employment -- Evidence from a natural experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 474-486, June.
    3. Diana Warren & Umut Oguzoglu, 2010. "Retirement in Australia: A Closer Look at the Financial Incentives," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(4), pages 357-375, December.
    4. Vistnes, Jessica Primoff, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Married Women's Retirement Decisions," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(1), pages 135-55, March.
    5. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2004. "The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 691-730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Vistnes, Jessica Primoff, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Married Women's Retirement Decisions," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(1), pages 135-155, March.
    7. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Marcelo Rodrigues dos Santos, 2013. "The Effect of Social Security, Health, Demography and Technology on Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 350-370, April.
    8. Axel Boersch-Supan, 1999. "Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option," NBER Working Papers 7339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Axel Borsch-Supan, 1998. "Incentive Effects of Social Security on Labor Force Participation: Evidence in Germany and Across Europe," NBER Working Papers 6780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Tunga Kantarci & Arthur Soest, 2008. "Gradual Retirement: Preferences and Limitations," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 113-144, June.
    11. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Incentive effects of social security on labor force participation: evidence in Germany and across Europe," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 25-49, October.
    12. Jonathan Gruber & Brigitte C. Madrian, 1996. "Health Insurance and Early Retirement: Evidence from the Availability of Continuation Coverage," NBER Chapters, in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 115-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Liebman, Jeffrey B. & Luttmer, Erzo F.P. & Seif, David G., 2009. "Labor supply responses to marginal Social Security benefits: Evidence from discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1208-1223, December.
    14. Karakaya, Güngör, 2008. "Early cessation of activity in the labour market: impact of supply and demand factors," MPRA Paper 13390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Charlene M. Kalenkoski & Sara Helms McCarty, 2021. "In or Out or Somewhere in Between? The Determinants of Gradual Retirement," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 387-394, June.
    16. Knut Røed & Fredrik Haugen, 2003. "Early Retirement and Economic Incentives: Evidence from a Quasi‐natural Experiment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(2), pages 203-228, June.
    17. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 135-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "New evidence on pensions, social security, and the timing of retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 207-236, November.
    19. Axel Börsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel & Simone Kohnz & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Decisions in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 285-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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